BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

For The Keystone Speculator BPSPX Indicator, the six percentage-point reversals and the 70% level are key parameters. The bulls were on a double-whammy buy signal in late April when the BPSPX pops through 70% (it had already reversed six percentage-points to the upside from 61.0-ish). So the bulls were all happy and having a good time until the BPSPX bumps its head on 84 and cannot go up any further. A 6 percentage-point reversal is 78.

Price falls below 78 issuing a stock market sell signal last Friday. The BPSPX leaks lower teasing the 70 level printing a LOD at 70.40 yesterday. Thus, choose your poison.

The bears need the BPSPX to fall below 70 which will be a double-whammy sell signal and pave the way for market carnage ahead.

The bulls need the BPSPX to move back above 76.40 (70.40 + 6.00) to throw confetti and watch the stock market take off like a rocket to the upside.

If price stumbles sideways, like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night, the stock market will continue sideways with the non-committal, choppy, whipsaw behavior. Either 70.00 (bearish) or 76.40 (bullish) will print, one of them will flinch, and that tells you the path ahead for equities in the short term. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:14 AM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. BPSPX slips below 70 to 68.80 issuing a double-whammy market sell signal. Bulls need the BPSPX back above 70% right away or they will fold like a cheap suit.

Note Added 11:53 AM EST: BPSPX 68.00.

Note Added 1:27 PM EST: BPSPX 67.60.


Note Added 5:38 PM EST: BPSPX 67.20. The SPX drops 20 points, -0.7%, to 2848. The 20-day MA support is at 2829 so this is a potential bounce or die pivot. The bears cheer the BPSPX but not so fast. Give it until the jobs report Friday morning to see if it cast in stone, or not. The bulls need to push the BPSPX above 73.20 to regain the upper hand. The bears simply have to keep the BPSPX below 70 to prove that they are in control of the stock market going forward. 

Note Added Saturday, 5/9/20: The bulls rally into the end of the week as the coronavirus news improves with talk of vaccines, more testing and most states going back to work (although the main reason is the ongoing Federal Reserve's and other global central banker's money-printing). The BPSPX pops to 70.20 back above the critical 70% level. Thus, the stock market remains on a sell signal but not a double-whammy sell. The bears need to push BPSPX back below 70 to receive a double-whammy sell signal and stocks will roll over lower. The bulls need to push the BPSPX above 73.20 to continue the rally (67.20 was the low three days ago so adding 6 for the reversal yields 73.20 as the target number the bulls need to prove that up is the direction ahead). Bears win sub 70. Bulls win above 73.20. In between is choppy slop. One of them will flinch.