SPXA150R S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts

The SPXA150R, and SPXA200R, are useful tools to reference as stocks become toppy. These charts are the percent of S&P 500 stocks that are above the 150-day MA, or 200-day MA, respectively. When the SPXA150R moves above 90%, Keystone calls it the bet-the-farm indicator. That is one of the very few indicators that are very reliable and a guaranteed short. The SPXA150R came up to 88%, which is close enough for government work as the old saying goes, so you know that the US stock market is at a significant top; it is only a matter of finding out where that top is at. It is a few hours or days away. The rampant market complacency has been ongoing for the last 10 weeks and although the sharp pullback occurs, stocks are now back up at new all-time record highs again.

That is the purpose of the charts above. Do you see the divergence with the S&P 500? Looking at the blue stars, starting late last year, a pullback occurs but stocks rebound and so does the SPXA150R. That's groovy. Then look at the orange stars. Stocks pull back in a minor way, so does the SPXA150R, and then equities rally to new record highs, so does the SPXA150R. That's coolio.

The red stars, however, tell a different story. Stocks take the big tumble, oh my, it was the end of the world, but then quickly recover on the PBOC and other central banker easy money. The stock market prints a new all-time record high yesterday at 3348 and new all-time closing high at 3346. Whoops. Hey, SPXA150R, whatcha doing way down there? The SPXA150R should be up at new highs as well going into the 90% bet-the-farm area, but it is not.

It is likely that the stock market has run out of juice. On these new record highs, only about 78% to 80% of the stocks were above their 150-day MA's where nearly 90% were above their 150's during the last record highs three weeks ago. There are equities that are stalling at these highs. Company insiders are ditching stock so that is not an encouraging sign for the path ahead. These are epic times in markets that few realize. You must understand that these high prints in the S&P 500 may not be seen again for many years forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.