SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; S&P 500 Prints New All-Time Record High at 3298.66 and Closing High at 3289.29; US-China Phase One Trade Deal Signing; President Trump Impeachment Process Continues

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3296.13 on 1/15/20. The US-China Phase One trade deal hype is in full swing today creating positivity. The chart says otherwise. Overbot conditions, the red rising wedge, universal negative divergence all say down in the 2-hour time frame. The SPX daily chart is in neggie d in the daily time frame as well. Traders and investors are hanging on today hoping for joyful trade deal news that can further boost markets. Can King Donny and Dictator Xi save the day?

The stock market retreated off the highs yesterday on news that the trade deal will not remove tariffs until after the November election. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin provides clarity this morning saying that the Phase Two discussions will begin and if they go quickly, tariffs may be eased, if it takes longer and later in the year, than the tariffs may be eased at a later time. Comically, Mnuchin starts mouthing off about a Phase 2a, 2b or even 2c deal ahead. Mnuchin also says that you need to put your right foot in, you put your right foot out, you put your left hand in and you shake it all about, you do the Hokey Pokey and you turn yourself around, that's what it's all about.

Many farmers, that voted for Soybean Donny, went bankrupt (they have a surprised look on their faces). Others are hanging on with subsidies provided by the US. The farmers will be happy that China will buy more ag products but with tariffs in place and the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on the table, they may plant another crop that they cannot sell.

The trade deal details are key but the Whitehouse has already said the information may be limited. Comically, how do you enforce China's promises if no one can firmly cast in concrete what the exact details are? In addition, there may still be a language barrier (or at least the two sides play games using language as the cudgel) that creates problems with the deal. Today will be interesting to see exactly what details are provided and how the deal is received. So far, with a new all-time high in the S&P 500 above 3296, within 4 points of 3.3K, traders like the deal news. King Donny can shape the narrative easier if the details of the deal remain general and non-specific.

Soybean Donny calls the agreement with China a "beautiful monster of a trade deal" tweeting from sitting on the commode in the Lincoln bedroom. Donny puts on the beggin' pads and kneels before Dictator Xi keeping quiet about the social unrest in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Trump did not want to offend Xi before the deal.The Western leaders sell their souls and bow down to the communists. UK banks are licking the bottom of Xi's shoes defending the communist way since they do not want to lose business. America sold its crony capitalism soul to communist China over the last five decades; there will not be a quick fix to this problem created by the wealthy class's greed.

The President Trump impeachment battle continues. House Speaker Pelosi conducts a news conference this morning and the articles of impeachment are to be given to the Senate today to start the trial process (soiling President Trump's trade deal party). It is comical to watch the corrupt democrats battle the corrupt republicans. Americans are best served to hope that neither side wins. Pelosi is a shrewd underrated politician she probably likes it that way. She delayed the articles of impeachment just long enough to allow the democrat presidential debate to take place last evening without addressing the impeachment drama.

In addition, Donny is set to attend Davos, the yearly party in the Swiss Alps for the wealthiest people in the world. Davos is where the billionaires go to look down on the millionaires. The privileged morons will opine about climate change while their custom Learjet's are gobbling-up fuel in the background. Trump will be over there next week with the impeachment trial likely in progress and, considering that he has few fans in Europe, the televisions in every meeting room, tavern and piano bar at Davos will be playing the impeachment trial in the background. Donny may not have a pleasant stay in Davos but he always seems to make the best of things.

The democrat senators running for the presidential nomination, Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar, will have to sit through the impeachment trial in Washington, DC, rather than shake hands at a campaign rally in Iowa. The Iowa primary is 2/3/20. Trump's State of the Union speech is 2/4/20 so the impeachment trial may be ongoing as he is providing the state of the onion. Trump continues to refuse to allow his henchmen to testify while at the same time say he is transparent. 

The Whitehouse Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, who was previously in the OMB which controlled money to Ukraine, is up to his eyeballs with the Ukraine scandal. Former National Security advisor Bolton wants to testify and Donny had left the door wide open for that, until he heard that it may happen, now Trump is against Bolton testifying. Trump may screw himself because he will be acquitted in the trial but when Bolton's book drops in the summer more than likely, that will have all the juicy tidbits about the Trump scandal in Ukraine; coming out right before the election and perhaps showing that all the republicans, and perhaps Trump, were untrustworthy during the trial.

The November election may pit two corrupt silver-haired white guys against each other. That is hilarious. Former Vice President Biden is up to his neck in a Ukraine scandal where he and his son were allegedly providing political access for dough. Crony capitalism infected them all. What a sickening soap opera. Perhaps Americans will instead long for some stability and peace instead of the daily noise, confusion, lies and chaos. It makes for a great reality television show but not so much for running the Free World.

If President Trump makes it to the November election (without a health event or office-removing scandal occurring), he will likely win reelection considering his opposition. Voters may figure it is better to vote for the crook you got rather than the crook you don't know. On the flip side, voters may tire of all this 24/7 political drama and not vote for the Bloviator-in-Chief instead opting for a quieter path ahead. An independent candidate with charisma would probably have a chance. Time will tell.

Just like yesterday, the minute, hourly and daily SPX chart say down due to the neggie d but the happy US-China trade deal talk, along with the Fed's money-pump, maintain market buoyancy. The signing of the deal today likely in the Oval Office may be a pivot point for the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:51 AM EST: The SPX prints another new all-time record high at 3296.88.

Note Added 10:54 AM EST: The SPX prints another new all-time record high at 3296.95 the highest number in stock market history. VIX 12.29. UTIL is at new record highs up above 893. Interestingly, copper is down -1.3% overnight now off -0.666% with investors selling the red metal on the trade news.

Note Added 10:56 AM EST: The hits keep on coming. The bulls are unstoppable. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3297.13. One trader shouts that his eyes have seen the coming of the Lord! Investors cheer that the truth of the Fed keeps marching on and the never-ending upside in stocks will endure forever. Hallelujah! Praise the central banks!

Note Added 11:01 AM EST: SPX all-time high 3297.37. VIX 12.31. UTIL is at 892 remaining well above the 880.50 bull-bear danger line. It's fantastic; the sky is dazzling with colors never seen before by man.

Note Added 11:04 AM EST: Yes, the SPX prints another new all-time record high at 3297.91.

Note Added 11:32 AM EST: Utilities are goosed hard today with UTIL up to a new record high above 894. Thus, any pullback in stocks would not be expected to continue through an intermediate term (weeks and months); the selling will likely be short-lived. SPX 3296. VIX 12.54. The stock market and volatility are both positive so one of them is wrong. Perhaps we find out which today. A huge crowd forms at the Whitehouse so the trade deal is going to be a lot bigger event than a small signing. Trump the showman wants to put on a large theatrical event telling the world that he has achieved the best trade deal in the history of mankind. After three years, it does not seem like much so he had better bring his A game. Tariffs are not rolled back, enforcement is a mystery, ditto intellectual property (IP). Soybean Donny said trade deals are easy and he will not agree to anything except a large universal deal. Fast forward three years and Donny is on his hands and knees not wanting to offend Xi over Hong Kong or Taiwan while agreeing to a Phase One deal where no one knows how many phases there are. That's entertainment.

Note Added 11:43 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3298.66.

Note Added 11:52 AM EST: Oh my. What a joke. There is music playing as President Trump and Chinese Premier Liu slowly walk up to podiums to announce the trade deal. Trump sure is the number one showman in the world that is undisputed. It is odd to have such a lavish affair since President Xi did not bother showing up. Vice President Pence speaks providing bragging points on the economy. SPX 3296.75. It is humorous to watch Li's cabinet. A couple of them look at Pence and Trump with disdain. USD 97.18. The players spend time patting each other on the back. Soybean Donny lashes praise on his daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared; of course he does, Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber. Trump brags that the Dow jumps above 29K as he begins speaking. The event is fantastic; the human hubris is entertaining. SPX 3293.70.

Note Added 12:10 PM EST: Trump goes on and on name-dropping and praising the wealthy class with each rich person taking turns bowing for the adoring crowd. Trump is rambling on 20 minutes into the event. SPX 3295. VIX 12.46. UTIL 894. Soybean Donny is praising people on and on it is hard to believe all of them had anything to do with the trade deal. They didn't. It is simply an opportunity to pump the republican names. This is how the political game is played. When is the signing?

Note Added 12:16 PM EST: SPX 3297. Trump continues praising republican names. Liu and the Chinese delegation appear impatience standing there like fools for a half hour while Trump keeps naming people one after another now praising company CEO's in attendance. All the crony capitalists are smelling and licking each other's butts. It's a big club and you ain't in it as George Carlin used to say.

Note Added 12:26 PM EST: Trump drones on bragging that he will meet with JPM CEO Dimon tomorrow. Dear Lord, 40 minutes in and nothing but wealthy people telling each other how smart they are. There is probably a trade deal signing in there somewhere. The event drones on so long, a couple of the business and cable news networks cut the coverage. Perhaps Trump plans on talking all day long? Are details released yet? SPX 3295.

Note Added 12:33 PM EST: SPX 3294. VIX 12.50. UTIL 895.

Note Added 12:43 PM EST: SPX 3295. VIX 12.46. UTIL 895. USD 97.18. The event drags on with Trade Negotiator Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin speaking. Trump forgot about the women senator from West Virginia Moore Capito so he goes back to acknowledge her. This event is painfully long. Liu begins speaking in Chinese with a translator speaking in English.

Note Added 12:50 PM EST: The signing ceremony drags on for one hour with Liu continuing his comments. Yawn. SPX 3292. VIX 12.56.

Note Added 12:53 PM EST: SPX 3290. VIX 12.61. Sell the news?

Note Added 1:06 PM EST: Finally, Trump and Liu sign the trade deal. The marathon event goes on for 1 hour and 15 minutes; that was too long. All the idiots pass around commemorative pens so they can brag to people in the future how they were part of the big signing party in January 2020. Isn't crony capitalism nauseating to watch? SPX 3288. VIX 12.73. UTIL 894. The SPX sinks 10 points from the all-time high at 3298.66 to 3288 during the festivities.

Note Added 1:16 PM EST: Some details of the trade deal are leaking out. A farmer's union group, likely left-leaning, slams the deal. The House is voting to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate. SPX 3289. VIX 12.64.

Note Added 1:56 PM EST: SPX 3287. VIX 12.73. UTIL 896. Everybody and his bro think they are smart buying utilities and staples as a defensive position. XLU and XLP are rocket-launching higher today. The Fed has destroyed the expected business cycles so the utes and staples are actually priced into the stratosphere, not beaten-down or laggards as would be expected late in the business cycle when the cycles existed before the central banker largess over the last decade. Investors buying utilities, real estate (XLRE), REIT's (VNO) and consumer staples are only covering themselves with a fig leaf. Bonds move higher, yields lower, 10-year yield is at 1.79%, utilities print all-time high, ditto staples, financials fall. XLF -0.8%.

Note Added 2:00 PM EST: SPX 3286. The Beige Book is released.

Note Added 2:15 PM EST: The VIX is jammed lower down to 12.48 so bingo, the SPX pops to 3293.

Note Added 2:32 PM EST: Wheeee. Whoopie. SPX 3295. The future is so bright that you have to wear shades. Trade deal, schmade deal. Copper -0.3%. Soybeans -1.4%. Oil -0.5%. Stocks are hanging in there. The last 65-minute trading segment begins at 2:55 PM so that may serve as a pivot point depending on if the robots are loaded with sell programs, or not.

Note Added 3:33 PM EST: There's the pivot before 3 PM. The SPX is now down 2 points on the session to 3281. The happy trade talk hype beat back the neggie d for a while today but the expected bearish slap down is probably starting to exert itself. Let's see what the bears got. VIX 12.75. UTIL 894.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 1/16/20, at 7:30 AM EST: Stocks were soggy after the trade deal hype yesterday so National Economic Advisor Kudlow's team ran to a microphone promising middle class tax cuts this year (walked back later). That was enough to float stocks higher into the closing bell. The SPX prints the all-time high at 3298.66 less than 2 points from 3.3K, and an all-time closing high at 3289.29. The CPCE put/call ratio drops to 0.44 signaling rampant complacency and a significant stock market top at hand. S&P futures are up +10. VIX 12.13. Copper +0.4%. The screen printers are working through the night printing "SPX 3.3K" hats like madmen. The first four cartons of 3.3K caps arrive at the steps of the NYSE a couple hours ago. The hats are already positioned behind trading counters ready to hand-out the minute the glorious S&P 500, America's stock market, prints 3.3K, the highest number in history. Whhheeee. Whoopie!