Conference Board Leading Economic Index with Recessions Highlighted Long-Term Chart; The Curl Develops

The curl develops. No, not the curl in pretty Meghan's hair, nor the curl of Harry the Hog's tail at the Brown's farm down the road, this curl is in the conference board's leading economic indicators chart. The chart is provided courtesy of Advisor Perspectives and annotated by Keystone. Advisor Perspectives provides great insight into the data.

But looking down from the 30,000 foot (9,144 m) level at the chart, something jumps out at you quickly. Do you see it? Note that when the conference board's data rolls over, and the chart curls over to the downside, a recession follows from 8 months to 2 years hence. The data peaked last July so we are 6 months beyond that. The recession is likely far closer than anyone realizes. And do not forget the potential impact of the 11 years of obscene money-printing by the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers, all acting in collusion, to keep the world's stock markets elevated protecting the wealthy privileged class. No one yet knows the impact of such long-term financial intervention. The destruction of price discovery and the business cycles by the Fed and other central bankers over the last decade may mask the data and the recession may appear far faster this time around.

It is fascinating that the universal consensus on Wall Street is that there is no chance of a recession this year. And there are not all that many calling for a recession in 2021. Everyone is looking through rose-colored glasses these days. Folks perceive blue skies and rainbows in these bread and circus days of entertainment. However, when the rose-colored glasses are removed, an ugly economic and market landscape emerges. It is the same as the house lights coming up at the end of a fun evening at the nightclub, bar, concert or movie theater.

The bomp-bomp-bomp of the techno music fills your ears at the club, the girls are shaking their money-makers, glitz and glamour is everywhere, sparkling colors fill the air, but when the music ends, and the lights come up, you see the dirty floor, the stained sofa, the walls that need painted and the ugly duct work above. At the darkened movie theater with your honey, you are delighted with the sights and sounds, the experience is magical, you are in a wonderful fantasy world far away from your own mundane existence, but the movie ends and the lights come up exposing the popcorn and spilled soda on the dirty cement floor, the gum stuck to the ragged seat to your side, and the dust-laden curtains on each side of the stage. Reality always returns as it will in the markets and economy.

There is only one false signal back in 1994 when the data curled over but a recession did not occur. The tech industry joy was taking off like wildfire in the 90's and likely helped to paper-over the weakness in the mid-90's until the dotcom bubble popped in 2000, followed by recession.

If you are a young person, prepare for the coming recession. Once you lose your job, it will be too late. One in four of you under 30 years old will likely lose your job over the next year or two. Recessions begin when the times are happy and joyous. A recession does not begin months after a stock market crash; by then the country will already be neck-deep in a world of sh*t. For those of you that have not read K E Stone's (The Keystone Speculator, Keybot the Quant and Keystone the Scribe) internationally-popular and highly-rated article on recession and its societal impact, here is a link;

Clueless Millennials Must Prepare Financially, Mentally and Emotionally for the Coming Recession; A PSA (Public Service Announcement) for Millennials Explaining the Ugly Realities of Economic Recession

This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.