AAPL Apple Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedges; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; AAPL Prints Record High Above 317

AAPL, GOOGL and MSFT are three key stocks that are goosed strongly higher with the Federal Reserve's Q4 easy money pump that extends into this year. These three will likely be the last tickers to roll over in the late winter or early spring as the long-term top in the stock market occurs. Parents bot AAPL stock for their kids as holiday gifts but the silver-spooned brats will be disappointed by next Christmas.

The rally in 2019 is phenomenal from 138 at the start of the year to the 313 palindrome, an all-time record high (split-adjusted), or 312.666, to be exact, right now; a +130% rally. Apple has over-doubled during the last year. In Q4, the last three months, AAPL leaps from 214 to the 313 palindrome; a +46% gain. CEO Cook is cooking up some big gains; it's smiles all around at the Apple headquarters and for shareholders. Every single investment house owns AAPL stock so the Q4 QE pumps Apple to record highs which takes the broad stock market to record highs as well.

AAPL is in the Dirty Thirty, the Dow Jones Industrials Index. Using a rule of thumb for Dow stocks to multiply their daily move by 7 to estimate the Dow point moves, AAPL launched 175 points in 2019 which is about 1225 points added to the Dow (INDU; DJIA). In Q4, during the Fed's obscene money-pump, AAPL adds about 700 points to the Dow Jones Index. The wine is flowing like water. However, that math works in reverse, also.

It is interesting to look back. Keystone called the May 2015 and September 2018 tops. Apple's goose was cooked for these tops but the Federal Reserve and other global central banker largess cannot help themselves printing money 24/7 to constantly create lift in the stock market. The world remains awash in liquidity. What a sick financial world it is but that is the way it goes.

The red rising wedge is ominous but price poked even higher on the Fed pump into the maroon rising wedge. These are bearish patterns. AAPL is overbot agreeable to a pullback on this monthly basis. Price has tagged the upper band so the middle band at 211 is on the table as well as the lower band at 129. Price is extended above its moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower.

The ADX has steadily shown a weaker and weaker trend higher with each rally the opposite of what should be happening if Apple had lots of growth remaining. In fact, this four-month pop is NOT a strong trend higher as per the ADX. The Aroon green line is at the ceiling at one hundo with nowhere to go but down. Watch for the negative cross ahead.

The red and maroon lines show negative divergence. The two green lines for the MACD and the histogram, however, are long and strong. The Fed's pump did its job creating a little bit of momo in mighty Apple. Thus, price will likely need to jog for a couple months so the MACD line has time to go neggie d. When that occurs, the long-term top for AAPL is once again in (depending on how powerful the next central banker pump is).

The parabolic price move is a gift for those long AAPL stock. You can choose your exit path forward since time will be short. AAPL should pull back now due to the overbot conditions so say, sogginess in January into February, but that long and strong behavior will create anothe price high. AAPL will likely come back up again for that high, on the monthly basis, in the Feb-Apr period and that will be the long-term multi-month and multi-year top for Apple.

The AAPL weekly chart is neggie d except for the RSI and MACD hinting at about 2 to 4 weeks needed for AAPL to top out on the weekly basis. The weekly chart is agreeable to a pullback now due to the overbot conditions and neggie d on the other indicators. 

The AAPL daily chart is in neggie d except for the MACD line so it needs a jog move to top out which is one day down and another day up when that is potentially the top in the daily time frame which may occur mid-week this week.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? AAPL will likely top out this week, then down for a week or two, then back up for a week or so to print a top on the weekly basis, this will gel with the negativity on the monthly chart. So top in a couple days, down a week, up a week, and then down for several weeks a month or so which places AAPL at a low say in February, then back up for a matching record high, say in March, and that occurs with universal neggie d on the monthly chart, and that will be the very long-term top for Apple. The way the monthly chart is now, you do not want to be in AAPL ever again, on the long side, from say, April forward. Shorts will be in vogue from there forward. Plan accordingly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:44 AM EST: AAPL prints a new all-time record high at 313.38 sticky at the 313 palindrome. Traders are buying Apple stock at the ask believing that the iPhone will be worshiped and exalted into eternity.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/14/20, at 8:00 AM EST: Whooppie! Mighty Apple is unstoppable. Tim Cook will be buying another vacation home. AAPL gains +2.1% to 316.96 a new record high and 317.07 the all-time high. The strength pushes the RSI higher and the MACD line remains long and strong, thus, the top is moved a couple days forward, so instead of tomorrow or Thursday, probably more like Friday or Monday.