SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 18-Year Reliable Stock Market Cycle Now Unreliable (Maybe); S&P 500 Prints Record High at 3226; Markets and Economy in Longest Rally and Expansion in History; Recession Does Not Occur in 2010-2020; First Decade in History Without a Recession

The SPX is at all-time historic record highs printing 3226 on Friday, 12/20/19. The 18-year stock cycle is the most reliable cycle in the markets at least until the central bankers contaminated global markets over the last decade. You could set your clock by the 18-year cycle; trains ran on time based on the 18-year. Atomic clocks would set their time to the 18-year cycle.

The stock market was in a secular bear from 1964 to 1982. President Ronald Reagan came into office in the early 1980's and broke the unions (which lowered expenses for companies and boosted stock prices for the rich). He cut taxes but starting sending high-paying middle-class jobs overseas (again, to cut business expenses and raise stock prices). The opening of global markets (China, etc..) in the early 1980's coincided with the 18-year secular bull cycle that was beginning so Ronnie Raygun rode the lucky train to Gloryville. The secular bull ran from 1982 to 2000 and that is when the dotcom bubble popped.

The 18-year secular bear market begins in 2000 and runs to 2018. Well, we are in 2019 now and on the verge of 2020, and the 18-year cycle is busted (well, maybe not yet). First of all, the green lines show the strong cyclical bull market rallies within the secular bear. Folks that talk out of their butt about technical analysis will denigrate the 18-year cycle touting the 2003 to 2008 and 2009 to present rallies as proof positive. Actually, very strong cyclical bull rallies are expected to occur in secular bear markets; that behavior is normal.

The stock market and economy is now in the longest rally and expansion in US history. Isn't that something. It's the best markets the central banker money can buy. As we say goodbye to the teens decade and onto the Roaring 20's decade, the stock market has gone through the entire decade (2010 thru 2020) without a recession for the first time in history. Wow.

The Power and Glory of the Global Central Bankers, the modern-day Money God's in charge of the Temple, is phenomenal and worthy of Praise. Kneel and Worship at the feet of Pope Powell, Lady Lagarde, King Kuroda and Gangleader Yi Gang. Show them Honor and Adoration. The Eccles Building is now on Holy and Sacred land. Each morning, Powell and his cohorts kneel and pray at the base of a golden statue. Former Fed heads Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen also join the sacred ceremony and pray to their Holy Master, yes, it is the Golden Printing Press, their Eternal God.

Cycles routinely perform left and right translations. This is where a cycle may come to its end point a little earlier than expected, a left translation, or a little later than expected, a right translation. The translation amount varies with the cycle. For the 18-year cycle, it would not be uncommon to experience a couple-year left or right translation. Well, the left translation is not on the table since we are in December 2019 already a year beyond the targeted end of the 18-year secular bear from 2000 to 2018.

The game-changer and destroyer of all price discovery and market cycles is the Federal Reserve and its global central banker buddies such as the ECB, BOJ, PBOC, BOE, RBA, RBI and 20 other joker nations. They have pumped liquidity into global markets since March 2009 to prop up the equity markets and protect the wealthy class that own large stock portfolios.

So it is plain as day why the stock market placed its record high on Friday; the Fed and other global central bankers. The world is awash in liquidity and all asset classes including stocks, bonds, real estate, vineyards, antique cars, art, collectibles, etc.. are at bubble prices. Money is so cheap that individuals and businesses have been buying stupid stuff or investing in hair-brain ideas for the last few years; all of these sick chicken's will come home to roost. Easy money encourages loose spending and bonehead business decisions.

Thus, is the 18-year cycle a bust, after decades of excellency, or do we remain in this one-decade central banker fantasyland that comes to an end once the easy money ride stops?

The secular bull market is expected to run from 2018 to 2036. This makes sense since inflation will be kicking in, even hyperinflation, which will be a whole new set of dire problems ahead in the 2020's, and stocks will inflate like all other assets. The tricky part is where does this secular bear end now and the secular bull begin. One would expect a huge selloff period to occur for the secular bear period to finally put its stamp on this cycle.

If stocks crash going forward, the 2000-2018 secular bear market would go out with a bang and end up as a right-translated cycle of about 2 years from 2000 to 2020. All would then be right with the universe. The other outcome is the stock market never pulls back significantly so the reliable 18-year cycle would be deemed an unreliable tool and thrown onto the trash heap of technical analysis. The secular bull would then be underway until 2036.

2020 will be a fascinating year. Will the 18-year secular bear finally growl and go out with a bang, with a stock market crash, or, does the Federal Reserve and its central banker partners in crime keep printing Keynesian cash and prop markets up forever? What do you think the future holds? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.