SPX S&P 500 30-Minute with 8/34 MA Cross and 60-Minute with 200 EMA Cross Charts

The bears came to play today stabbing the bulls in the eye with a stick and kicking them in the knees. 90 minutes into trading, the SPX dips 28 points, -0.9%, to the 3113 palindrome. The overnight S&P futures have reversed about 40 points to the downside. Futures were joyous overnight after the PBOC said they will remain accomodative with loose monetary policy despite positive manufacturing data. The sick central banks cannot help themselves. They pump the global stock markets whether the economy is sick or healthy. Global equities are on a permanent easy-money intravenous drip and hooked on central banker liquidity. The central bankers are the market.

So everything was hunky-dory in the early morning hours until President Trump imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina. S&P futures lost about 10 handles but remained a hair positive when the 9:30 AM EST bell rang. Commodities were goosed higher to try and save the day but that rolled over. Copper is negative. Stocks roll over lower.

At about 10:30 AM EST, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, after chugging down a bottle of Geritol, says the US will implement tariffs on 12/15/19 if a deal is not reached. The stock market sinks on this news bite that comes from a Fox TV interview.

Keystone's SPX 30-Minute Chart with 8/34 MA Cross Indicator shows that the 8 MA has stabbed down through the 34 MA ushering a VST (very short term) bear market. However, Keystone's SPX 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross Indicator shows that the S&P 500 remains 33 points above the 200 EMA at 3082 maintaining a VST bull market. The 60-minute says the bulls are in charge over the VST but the 30-minute says the bears are; one of them will flinch.

Either the 60-minute fails into the bear camp proving that market carnage is coming bigtime, or, the 30-minute turns bullish with the 8 crossing above the 34 which will push the stock market to more joyous new highs. If the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute at 3082 fails, it is over for the stock market (equities are likely heading at least -5% lower).

Looking at the 60-minute chart, you see the W pattern bottom. These are typically powerful bullish indicators and you can see the rally that followed. As a short term trader, and if you like to be a bull most of the time, simply scan charts for W pattern bottoms. If a W forms below the 50-day MA or 200-day MA that gives the stock or index more upside power and if the W forms below both the 50 and 200 (on the daily), it has big-time bullish power that it is about to unleash. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:14 AM EST: The SPX is down 30 points, -1.0%, to 3111. The VIX spikes to 15.24. Ho, whoa, ho! Keybot the Quant algorithm calls out 15.11 as the key bull-bear line in the sand. In addition, the critical 200-day MA is at 15.10 so this level is for all the marbles. If the VIX remains above 15.11, stocks are toast. Standby. This could get messy. Copper -0.4%.

Note Added 11:25 AM EST: The VIX slips back to 14.90. Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along. The SPX is down 25 points, -0.8%, to 3116. Copper flat.

Note Added 11:33 AM EST: Here comes the VIX up to 14.98 ready for another look at the 15.11 bull-bear line in the sand. Keystone is strapped into his Office Max chair, with the worn arm rests, ready for any fast-moving action that may occur. Whoa. VIX 15.10. Here we go.........

Note Added 11:36 AM EST: The bears are all bluster. The VIX falls back to 15.01. It is on a silver platter if the market bears want it. All the bears have to do is reach out and take it. VIX 15.07.  Whoa, ho. 15.14. Here we go, ..... checking the straps and helmet.... okay, let's do this........

Note Added 11:38 AM EST:  Pssffft, ffftttt. Volatility fizzles again the VIX drops to 15.05. The bears do not have the juice as yet; all they need is a few pennies more of VIX upside and market carnage will begin. The bears did not eat their Wheaties this morning. The drama increases. VIX 14.97. The bulls are trying to jam commodities higher and volatility lower to save the day today. So far they are succeeding in holding the losses at bay. Looking at the commodity action, the bulls may be having trouble goosing them, so the VIX, volatility, may come back up for another try at 15.11+. VIX is at 14.94. Stealing some data from the Keybot algo, if the GTX (commodities) move above 2446, the bulls win going forward. If the VIX moves above 15.11, it is over for the stock market. Who will win?.

Note Added 11:48 AM EST: The SPX is down 24 points, -0.8%, to 3117. VIX is at 14.78 dropping to the lowest price in an hour so the bulls breathe a sigh of relief. The bears hopes for more downside are starting to vanish; bears need higher volatility. Copper -0.1%. GTX is at 2437. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's and 2's lead to 8's. Thus, if the SPX closes below 3120, that opens the door to 3080.

Note Added 12:41 PM EST: The SPX is down 27 points, -0.9%, to 3114. VIX is at 14.76 and rising after it played around with a 14.33 low a few minutes ago. Copper -0.3%. GTX 2435. There is a Mexican standoff in progress between the bulls and the bears each side is waiting for the other to flinch. The bulls smack the bears across the face; the VIX drops to 14.61.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/3/19, at 9:10 AM EST: The bears win out yesterday with the SPX puking 27 points, -0.9%, to 3114. VIX finishes at 14.91 teetering at the 15.11 deciding line. Copper finishes flat still deciding which way to go. Overnight, copper futures fall apart down -0.8%. The VIX leaps higher above 17 to 17.02. President Trump said the US-China trade deal may be put off until after the November 2020 election. The futures markets are harpooned by the comment. Of course futures tank with the S&P's down -28 with the opening bell for the regular session minutes away. It is a good think Keystone remained strapped into his Office Max office chair all night long; the chair with the squeaky wheel and worn out arm rests. The new helmet may also come in handy for today's price action. The face shield is lowered to prepare for today's drama.