SPX S&P 500 30-Minute Chart with 8/34 MA Cross

One of Keystone's key short-term market indicators is the 8/34 MA cross on the SPX 30-minute chart. The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA so the bears are in charge of the stock market in the short-term going forward.

The US-China trade deal drama continues. The Phase One deal was supposed to be signed by the end of the year. Oh well, more lies. Comically, the chief communist negotiator, Vice Premier Liu, says he is will arrive in the US this week to sign the deal. One-half hour later, US Trade Adviser Navarro says the Phase One deal will be signed next week. President Trump must have been unhappy over the miscommunication since Navarro then ran to a microphone and proclaimed that Phase One is "a done deal."

Navarro is speaking on CNBC business television as this is typed and now says he is still waiting for the Chinese translation. Pause for laughter. This is simply a lie and excuse to buy more time. Keystone has been involved in plenty of foreign negotiations and the translations are done in real-time. Navarro says the deal will be signed sometime in January. This stuff is hilarious. Obviously, all the bozo's are still playing around with the contract semantics and the lawyers are likely involved. If the deal is finished where are the details? Remember, President Xi, the head commie, has to bless the deal.

The impeachment drama continues. President Trump is spending the holiday in Florida tweeting like an adolescent child. Twitter is Donny's toy. The president keeps denigrating anyone that disagrees with him on any matter, after all he's King Trump, and he says he did nothing wrong, but will not permit the people in his inner circle, that were involved with the scandal, to testify. Crony America is great. Republican Trump says democrat House Leader Pelosi is an idiot with bad judgement, however, underestimating someone typically leads to peril. Pelosi ate Donny's lunch a year ago in the government shutdown saga.

The articles of impeachment were ratified in the House but Pelosi has not yet sent the information to the Senate where a trial against the president will be conducted. The Senate has a slight republican majority so republican Leader McConnell wants to ramrod the matter through as quickly as possible and said he is taking all his direction from the Whitehouse (which has opened a whole new can of worms; he should at least pretend he is impartial like the judges do across the US).

At the same time, Pelosi extended an invitation for Trump to provide the State of the Union speech before Congress on 2/4/20 (this is standard practice and customary). Satirists such as Keystone call this the 'State of the Onion'. Anyhoo, it was surprising for Donny to instantaneously and quickly jump on the invitation like a monkey grabbing a banana (since he did not strategize about potential democrat traps before accepting the date). King Donny will never turn down a chance for his orange-head to appear on television.

Thus, Trump's speech date is set in concrete for 2/4/20. It is obvious that Pelosi is trying to extend the time it takes for the impeachment trial to occur in the Senate. Each day the trial in the Senate is pushed forward is another day closer to the speech and Pelosi likely wants to see the proceedings and testimony, and potential trouble for Donny, to be occurring in real-time as he provides the evening speech. Who knows, Trump may finally flip his wig for all the world to see. Or, as Teflon Don has proved in the past, he may rise to the occasion and be able to beat back his detractors. Pelosi may have other things up her sleeve as well. Trump would be far wiser to take Pelosi seriously since she knows how the Washington game is played.

At the same time the corrupt republicans stink up the nation, the equally-corrupt democrats are touting the greatness of former Vice President Joe Biden, that is also knee-deep in a Ukraine scandal. Biden and his son were allegedly stuffing dollars into their pockets in return for providing government access. Comically, in November, Americans may go to the polls having to choose between two crooked silver-haired white guys. That is funny. This must be how the crony capitalism system ends. It is entertaining to watch. Donny is the star of this reality television presidency. Today's episode is interesting as Iraqi radicals storm the US embassy in Baghdad. Happy New Year.

Worries continue over an end-of-year liquidity event and is the reason the Federal Reserve has been printing money like madmen, buying assets, and sending stocks to the moon. The wealthy elite class dance with glee as they spit on the huddled masses.

Flash crash concern continues. The market conditions are ripe. There is low-volume trading, perhaps a liquidity squeeze still appearing, many exchanges and markets are closed which can exacerbate an event, such as in the yen currency, so the coming days and next month will be interesting.

Typically, when a month moves in one direction wall-to-wall, like December all up, the last few days finish in the opposite direction, which is occurring. New money typically comes into the market to begin the year creating buoyancy in stocks. The Santa Claus Rally runs from last Thursday to this Friday and Santa is looking skinny and weak instead of robust and strong.

The stock market bears remain in control as long as the 8 MA remains below the 34 MA. By definition, the 8 MA will never curl upwards until the SPX price moves above the 8 MA. Thus, watch that 3223-3225 area as resistance. The bulls will be dancing into year-end if they can push price above here and moving higher. The bears will create further downside damage to equities each minute the 8 MA remains below the 34 MA. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:05 AM EST: The VIX is above 15 to 15.17. Volatility pops, so stocks drop. S&P futures are down -6. Copper -0.9%. 10-year 1.90%. Gold 1524. Bitcoin is at the 7227 palindrome.

Note Added 9:10 AM EST: S&P -7. VIX 15.19. Copper -1.1%. Dollar/yen 108.48.

Note Added 9:18 AM EST: President Trump tweets, of course he does, that the Phase One deal will be signed on 1/15/19. Now the trade deal will not be signed until mid-January. Does anyone believe that? Humorously, King Donny must be having a hard time finding translators. S&P -7. VIX 15.13. Markets are not impressed. Donny plans to go to China for Phase Two talks. Big deal. The orange-one does not say how many phases there are. If there are 18 phases, there is nothing to get excited about. Crony capitalism becomes more of a joke each day. 10-year 1.91%.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 1/1/20: Happy New Year. The bulls rally stocks higher with the SPX ending the 2019 year up +29% to 3231. The 8 MA is at 3221 curling higher but remains below the 34 MA at 3226 so the bears remain in control of the stock market in the VST. The bears will need to immediately send the SPX below the 3221-3226 range to maintain the negative 8/34 MA cross. Otherwise, the 8 will cross above the 34 and the bulls will be singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again."