SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; S&P 500 Prints All-Time High at 3097.77 and All-Time Closing High at 3085.18; Upward-Sloping Channel; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

October is in the bag and was an up month. November is underway. The stock market did not cough-up an epic October drop worthy of future history books. How about a big November drop? Today will be the sixth day of trading in November. You see the current November candlestick up +1.6% on the month thus far but there is a long way to go with Turkey Day (Thanksgiving) on tap during the last week of the month.

The stochastics are ovebot agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses from rising wedges can be very fast, sharp and devastating. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all chart indicators. The long-term stock market top, on the monthly and yearly basis, is in play. The tiny green lines show the ongoing near-term momentum due to the hyping of the US-China trade deal.

The bulls are trying to regain past glory, and actually have succeeded since the S&P 500 prints a new all-time high at 3097.77 and new all-time record closing high at 3085.18 on Thursday, 11.7/19. The near-term momo may try and limp the markets along for another couple months but the long term neggie d is going to exert itself and it will not be pretty. The stock market is entering a long-term, probably one or two years, maybe more, of soggy sideways to sideways lower equity prices. Young folks that never saw the stock market go down will come to understand how it can go down month after month rather than up.

Price has touched the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 2833, and rising, is on the table for the months ahead. The upper band sits at 3118 right now and must be respected. However, considering the rampant market complacency shown by the low put/calls, stocks should roll over to the downside at any time.

The blue upward-sloping channel remains in play for the last decade. The start of this historic rally in early 2009, and longest economic expansion in history, is driven by the Federal Reserve and other global central banker's money-printing. It is a one-decade sick Keynesian experiment that has yet to produce its final result. The stock market will be in big trouble if the 2900-ish level blue trend line is lost.

The 10-month MA at 2926 is very important. It is watched by old-time traders as a key market signal. Therefore, it has been programmed into a lot of algorithms and trading models. When the 10-mth fails in the future, probably by year end, consider that to be a negative market signal and a bell ringing that there is serious trouble on tap. Price is extended above the moving averages and needs a mean reversion lower.

The 12-month MA at 2873 is one of Keystone's key cyclical indicators and with the SPX price far above 2873, the bulls are enjoying the ongoing cyclical bull market. If 2873 fails, that is a cliff edge, and markets could potentially drop into free-fall. Just think, all of this fun is ahead. In the years forward, the SPX will venture back down to move below that long-term 200-month MA currently at 1649, and rising. It would not be surprising at all to see the S&P 500 down at 1800-2200, or lower, in a year or two.

The ADX shows that the crash in late 2008 into 2009 and the start of 2010 was a strong trend lower (purple box) but it petered out when Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke stepped in to save the day with QE1 (quantitative easing). The Fed started printing money like madmen to save the stock market and protect America's wealthy class (that own huge stock portfolios). The trend higher in stocks was a strong one through 2014 into 2015 but that petered out after the May 2015 stock market top. All of you remember Keystone calling and describing that top ahead of time.

The global central bankers continue goosing markets and the rally through 2017 and into and through 2018 was considered a strong trend as per the ADX. The Q4 2018 crash changed all that and with the ADX down at 19 now, the rally higher, despite printing all-time highs, is NOT a strong trend higher on the long-term monthly basis. Look at the price peaks in 2014, 2018 and now compared to the ADX falling each time. Thus, over the last 5 years, as price continues higher printing new record highs, its underlying trend becomes weaker and weaker and does not even register anymore as a strong trend higher.

Note the two red trading volume candlesticks over the last few months greater than the buying volume candlesticks. Distribution is taking place with the large institutions and investment banks sloughing off shares to Joe Sixpack, Mary Naive, Frank Fool and Barry Bagholder.

We are watching historic stock market action that will be written about in history books for decades to come. If you are a young person, you do not understand this as yet since you have not experienced extended economic and market downturns and recessions. Prepare yourself so you do not end up as one of the chumps. Stay away from long plays and instead bring on shorts as the weeks and months play out going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.