SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; S&P 500 Prints New All-Time High at 3142.69 and All-Time Closing High at 3140.52

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3138.80 on Tuesday, 11/26/19.

The charts are absorbing the latest US-China trade news into the price. There is lots of talk since Sunday afternoon that the US and China are working towards resolving the major trade issues such as IP theft and enforcement of rules. In reality, it is likely the communists dangling carrots with extending time their main goal. Soybean Donny may not be in office this time next year but Xi has appointed himself as dictator for life.

The Hong Kong unrest is complicating the US-China trade negotiations. China tells America to bud-out but the US Congress approved a resolution condemning China's treatment of Hong Kong. President Trump has to decide to sign the bill to remain on the side of human rights, or, not sign the bill and instead lay in bed with the communists.

Soybean Donny is trying to separate the two issues placing Hong Kong in one box and the US-China trade negotiations in another box, however, this will not fly. China has already said many times if the US intervenes in Hong Kong politics (which it will if Trump signs the Hong Kong bill), tariffs will be imposed.

What creates even more palace intrigue around the Trump reality television show, is that there is a date-certain time line playing out. Donny must decide whether or not to sign the Hong Kong bill in the days ahead by early December. Then, on 12/15/19, additional US tariffs against China are set to occur. Thus, President Trump must pull a rabbit out of the hat in the coming 18 days, a couple of weeks, to tie all these events up in a pretty little bow. If the deal gets pushed into the new year, that may disappoint investors that were already promised that a phase one deal would be finished by now capped off with a Trump-Xi signing ceremony.

Tax-loss selling hits its peak in early December. When a month is all upside, like November, it typically finishes weak. The new moon is peaking for the month right now and stocks are typically weak through the new moon. Stocks are typically buoyant around the Thanksgiving Day holiday in thin trading. Mix all that together and what do you get? Three negatives and one positive.

The 2-hour chart is in neggie d just like the prior top a week ago. Price did not have the strength to come back up again but it was given the extra energy from the happy trade talk. The stoch's are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 3116 and lower band at 3090 are on the table. Price is extended requiring a mean reversion. Copper futures are up +0.2%. Bears cannot growl until copper turns negative.

The stock market would be expected to top out sometime today but always remains subject to more happy trade talk or Thanksgiving Day joy. A negative catalyst would likely spank stocks down very sharply and quickly in dramatic fashion. Watch the money flow which is one-tick behind the price candlesticks; see if it rolls over with neggie d which will identify the top. The all-important monthly Consumer Confidence data misses expectations, now lower for four consecutive months, but no one cares since they are too busy buying stocks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:46 AM EST: The SPX is up 3 points, +0.1%, to 3137. Copper +0.2%. VIX 11.81. 10-year yield 1.73%. Gold 1458. Silver 16.97. Oil +0.5%. All the happy trade deal hype from the overnight phone call to now results in a paltry 3 points of upside for the S&P 500. The US politicians and Chinese communists did not get much bang for their jawboning buck. Watch to see if the bulls can take out the all-time record high at 3138.80. Copper is key.

Note Added 4:40 PM EST: The top level phone call did not provide much juice for stocks so Soybean Donny and Dictator Xi talk on the phone today; a tippy-top level phone call. Both the US and China say progress is made in the trade deal and President Trump proclaims the trade agreement is "in the final throes." That is a funny choice of words since final throes typically denotes something gasping its final breath before it kills over and dies. Obviously, the president meant that the US and China are dotting the i's and crossing the t's on the trade deal. Stocks jump higher and melt-up in the final half-hour of trading on the happiest of all trade talk hype. If the trade deal is in the final throes, that means in a day or two they should be announcing the final details. Don't hold your breath. The bulls goose copper that went from flat to up +1.3% in a heartbeat which guaranteed elevated equities today. The SPX gains 7 points, +0.2%, to 3140.52, a new all-time closing high. A new all-time high prints at 3142.69. Price went though the 3138 to 3142-3143. The trade talk is at a climax, a denouement, since the two leaders, Trump and Xi, talked today. It does not get any higher than that. So now is the time to sh*t or get off the pot. Perhaps they were discussing where an official signing of the deal will take place? The bulls are hoping the daily happy trade news joy pops stocks into Turkey Day and through the Friday short session. Trading volume is higher today than would be expected. There must be real belief that that the trade deal is about to happen. The charts keep saying down but the trade news hype keeps saying up.