EURUSD Euro Weekly Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation; Price Extended; ECB Rate Decision and President Draghi Press Conference Imminent

The ECB Rate Decision is imminent with President Draghi's press conference starting at 8:30 AM EST. King Draghi has his work cut out for him considering the chart above.

The euro weekly chart wants to bounce but Super Mario will be trying to coo dovishly and weaken the euro. It may be like trying to keep a beachball underwater.

The oversold stochastics, falling green wedge pattern, and universal positive divergence wants to see a big move higher in the euro and for a rally to begin on the weekly basis. Something will have to give since this is not on the ECB's wish list.

The euro has violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band, at 1.118, is on the table, also the upper band at 1.129. Both are trending lower. Price is extended below the moving averages needing a mean reversion higher. The red Aroon line has nowhere to go but down and the green line nowhere to go but up which is bullish the euro.

All these chart factors are bullish for the euro wanting to see a rally but Mario will likely be waving his dovish wings frantically at the press conference telling everyone not to look at the chart. The blue lines show key support levels at 1.07-ish, 1.083-ish and 1.09-ish.

That was a gap-up move in early 2017 so if the euro gaps back down through that gap that would be an island reversal pattern. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:47 AM EST: The ECB delivers dovish goodies but perhaps a wee bit less than expected. The euro is flattish on the session sitting at 1.1013. S&P futures are up +8. VIX 14.34. There is a lot to sort through and of course Draghi's words at 8:30 AM EST will tell the market story. QE is restarting at 20 billion euros per month rather than the 30 expected. The ECB goes further negative on the deposit rate as expected.

Note Added 7:50 AM EST: The euro prints 1.0987; a 1.09-handle. The euro is softening slightly so Draghi cracks a tiny smile as he rehearses sound bites for the press conference.

Note Added 7:58 AM EST: Euro 1.0971. Mario is at the free buffet table wiping a jelly doughnut stain off his neck tie.

Note Added 8:01 AM EST: Euro 1.09666. 

Note Added 8:03 AM EST: Euro 1.0954. The drop in the euro sets up a nice long entry.

Note Added 8:10 AM EST: Euro 1.0961. Draghi's hands are shaking and the butterflies are mixing with the bacon in his stomach before he takes stage. Mario spills some orange juice on his fingers and asks the waitress for a hand wipe. He can hardly wait until Madame Lagarde takes over at the ECB in the weeks ahead. Beads of sweat form on his forehead. Can he keep the euro low with his dovish words or will that euro beachball explode higher? Does the chart win going forward (euro rallies for a few weeks) or does Draghi win extending the weekly trend lower for the euro far into the future?

Note Added 8:17 AM EST: Euro 1.09666.


Note Added 8:22 AM EST: Euro 1.0970. The world awaits King Draghi to bestow his knowledge on the masses and tell global traders how to trade. The central bankers are the market.

Note Added 8:48 AM EST: Euro 1.0927. Draghi, king of the doves, waves his arm above the adoring crowd of soft-ball journalists sending the euro lower with each gesture and dovish word.

Note Added 8:50 AM EST: Euro 1.0939. DAX +0.6%. CAC +0.6%. MIB +0.666%. S&P futures +8. VIX 14.54.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/13/19, Friday the 13th: The euro sinks to a 28-month low (May 2017) below 1.093, testing near support at 1.09-ish. Super Mario flies above the crowd flapping his dovish wings like a madman. Draghi delivered the further negative move in the deposit rate and is restarting QE albeit at 20 billion euros per month rather than the 30 to 45 expected by analysts and pundits. The move to more quantitative easing is dubbed "QE Infinity" bringing back memories of former Fed Chairman Bernanke's pledges and proclamations a few years ago. The central bankers are one-trick ponies that only know how to print money to protect the wealthy privileged class that own huge stock portfolios. The ECB is implementing tiering which will help the banks weather the negative-rate storm. Interestingly, humorously, European banks sold off yesterday. That's funny. The euro rallies after Draghi's presser perhaps the chart mojo is taking over. Mario is frantically going through his notes trying to figure out which sound bite derailed his dovishness. The US and China are touting a potential interim trade deal, more happy trade talk, which impacts global markets. The euro ran up to 1.11 moving one big figure intraday yesterday. The euro is currently printing 1.1093. The middle standard deviation band is at 1.119 and needs a back kiss. So the chart wins the battle and the euro floats higher. The chart is on a weekly basis so the euro will likely experience buoyancy this month into early October the exact opposite of what 90%-plus analysts say. What you may see is subtle moves going forward. The euro will rise but it may be more of a multi-week sideways to sideways up bias rather than a big move higher. This behavior would create a sideways to sideways down bias in the dollar. A lower dollar would help US stocks but if the currencies chop sideways and are only biased slightly in one direction or the other the impact on the stock market may be moot. Draghi could not sleep last night; he is thinking of strapping his dovish wings on this morning and flying around Europe dropping euros from the sky. The central bankers are the market.

Note Added Sunday, 9/15/19: As the ongoing palindrome teen days continue, today is 91519, the euro is at 1.1073.