CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Stock Market Top is Near

The put/calls continue throwing off low numbers verifying ongoing complacency and lack of fear in the stock market. Everyone knows the Fed and other central bankers will save markets forever to protect the wealthy class so there is no reason to ever worry about a big selloff. The Whitehouse keeps talking about happy US-China trade negotiations so everyone is waving this banner although there are never any concrete results.

The party is in full swing. Traders sling back shots of Fed whisky and investors sip on ECB champagne. The BOJ sake has quite a kick and the PBOC rice wine is even stronger. Traders are plastered on the easy money booze dancing to and fro with lampshades on their heads buying stocks without a care in the world. Alfred E. Neuman asks, "What could possibly go wrong?"

Markets are in a holding pattern waiting on the Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Dot Plots at 2 PM EST and Chairman Powell's Press Conference that will run from 2:30 PM EST to about 3:30 PM EST. The stock market will move to and fro on Jerome's words.

The put/call ratios remain low so the complacency will whack the bulls at some point forward, any day, any time. The news bites play a major role in trading these days since the minute stocks begin to falter, either the Fed jumps in, or President Trump, or one of his henchmen, to talk things up and provide support for equities.

Today will be a fascinating day. The Fed had to take actions yesterday to support day-to-day liquidity in financial markets. Such action has not been seen since the Great Recession a decade ago so traders and investors are walking on eggshells. Everybody and his brother expects a 25-bip rate cut, even Aunt Mable that does not even watch the stock market, so that is a done deal. More important are Powell's words and how he defends taking action to maintain system liquidity.

The stock market is in a holding pattern waiting on Powell today. After that, the SPX 2-hour chart can be watched to see where it is going to top out at due to the rampant complacency.

Housing Starts drop in 2-1/2 hours. This number is uber important. According to the Keybot the Quant data, the US housing market has dipped into recession starting 7/17/19, two months ago. The housing data is key to see if this new multi-year trend continues. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.