TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Oversold Yields; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence Developing; Lower Band Violation

TNX, the 10-year Treasury note yield, falls to 1.47% and recovers to 1.53% currently. The drop in yields around the world is historic with over $16 trillion in negative-yielding debt. Things are getting out of control. During 2018, folks were happy with stocks moving higher and yields floating higher. The purple box shows the ADX above 28-ish in early 2018 so the trend higher in yield was strong.

The inflationists said their day has finally come and the 10-year yield will quickly tag 3% then 4% with some analysts calling for higher yields. 3%-plus was hit but yields then fall on their sword. The stock market fell into the Q4 2018 crash and folks ran to perceived safety buying Treasuries, staples (XLP), utilities (XLU, UTIL) and REIT's (VNQ). Treasury yields plummet lower as note and bond prices leap higher (prices higher yields lower; notes and bonds are rallying greatly). Worries of a pending recession, deflation, disinflation and a falling stock market create increased buying in Treasuries. The Fed remains dovish.

The collapse in yields is intense. Yield hugs the lower standard deviation line for months and desperately needs to mean revert higher at least to the middle band now at 2.08% and falling sharply. The purple box shows the down move is a very strong trend and low yields will likely stick around for a long time.

The green lines show oversold conditions and positive divergence wanting to bounce yields in the weekly time frame, however, the MACD line remains weak and bleak. Thus, TNX likely needs a jog move to place a bottom in this time frame (an up week, then back down for about a week, then, if the MACD line turns possie d, the bottom in yields is in and will begin a multi-week up move). Yield may chop for a couple weeks or so but the chart says the bottom in yields in the weekly time frame is likely in early September. Of course any tweet from President Trump can immediately change things. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 8/28/19, at 8:42 PM EST: Yields continue lower the 10-year dropping to 1.44% today now at 1.4666%.