The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Revisions Indicator Signals Recession

The revisions to the employment data in the US Monthly Jobs Report are extremely important. By the Fed's own admission and data analysis, the revisions to jobs numbers tend to be higher when the economy is doing well but tend to come in lower when the economy is in, or headed into, a recession.

The revisions to the employment numbers are now on a four-month skid signaling a recession on the come. Remember that the economic data does not pinpoint exactly when a recession begins until a couple years later when all the revisions to GDP and other data are revised several times and finalized. It is likely that the US will be in recession this year despite the Wall Street analysts, television pundits and optimistic fund managers telling everyone and his brother that there is no recession in sight.

In the December 2018 jobs report, the prior month's jobs number was revised higher from 155K to 156K.

The following data is for this year;
For the 1/4/19 data, jobs are revised down from 312K to 222K
For the 2/1/19 data, jobs are revised up from 304K to 311K
For the 3/8/19 data, jobs are revised up from 20K to 33K so the bulls are feeling good
For the 4/5/19 data, jobs are revised down from 196K to 189K
For the 5/3/19 data, jobs are revised down from 263K to 224K
For the 6/7/19 data, jobs are revised down from 75K to 72K
For the 7/5/19 data (revised on 8/2/19), jobs are revised down from 224K to 193K
On 8/2/19, there are 164K jobs reported so watch the revision to be released in the next jobs report on 9/6/19.

Note how even the pitiful 75K jobs number in June was revised lower. The US is slipping into recession whether anyone wants to hear that bad news or not. If you are a young person, reference Keystone's prior article, "Clueless Millennials Must Prepare Financially, Mentally and Emotionally for the Coming Recession; A PSA (Public Service Announcement) for Millennials Explaining the Ugly Realities of Economic Recession," by K E Stone.