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Saturday, July 27, 2019
SPX S&P 500 and VIX Volatility 10-Minute Charts; SPX Prints All-Time Record High at 3028
The new record highs keep on coming for the S&P 500. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3027.98, call it 3028, on 7/26/19 and new all-time closing high at 3025.86, call it 3026, on 7/26/19. The global central bankers are colluding to maintain accomodative monetary policies forever so every day is a party in the stock market. No need to worry since rich Uncle Fed can print limitless money to drive asset prices higher and protect the world's wealthy class. It is fascinating price action.
Interestingly, the VIX prints an 11-handle last week, down to 11.69, when the SPX printed its record high at 3020 (blue circle). Thus, if the S&P 500 now explodes higher to the euphoric 3028, it is a no-brainer to expect the VIX to be an 11-handle and probably down to 11.5-ish. As seen on Friday, 7/26/19, as the epic new all-time high is printed at 3028, the VIX only dropped to 12.01 and did not even print an 11-handle the whole day. A divergence. As the German behind the fern plant on the Laugh-In television show said many years ago, "Velly interesting."
On the daily charts, the same divergence is occurring. In April, as the SPX printed record highs in the 2910-2950 area, overcoming last Fall's all-time high at 2941, the VIX fell to 11-flat intraday. The VIX should be at least a point lower considering that the stock market continues printing new record highs. The VIX has to make a decision at this 12-flat level. Bounce (to make for happy bears) or die (to make for happy bulls). The pivot from 12 will dictate the path ahead for the stock market.
On Monday, the VIX needs to immediately begin printing an 11-handle and move towards a 10-handle to make the bulls feel good about the rally continuing higher. Bears need higher volatility. Copper fell -0.7% in the up tape on Friday and the red metal drops -2.5% last week as stocks print joyous highs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 8:00 AM EST on Thursday Morning, 8/1/19: Today is the first day of trading for August. During Fed Chairman Powell's press conference yesterday afternoon, the VIX pops to 16.55 and SPX plummets to 2958. The SPX begins Thursday at 2980. S&P futures are up +2 with the VIX trading at 15.05.
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