SPX S&P 500 3-Minute Chart; Big Battle at the Key 12-Month MA

The SPX 12-month MA cross is the most important stock market indicator that separates a cyclical (weeks and months) bull market from a cyclical bear market. The 12-month MA is at 2781-2782. The SPX is at 2779; failure. The stock market is in serious trouble right now. The SPX LOD thus far is 2766.06.

20-week MA 2813
10-month MA 2784
12-month MA 2781-2782
Price is at 2779
50-week MA 2776
200-day MA 2776

With 90 minutes of trading remaining in the hump day session, the S&P 500 is battling for its life. Cluster those key moving averages and you have a range of 2776-2784 for all the marbles. Stock market carnage will occur sub 2776 (the SPX failed earlier in the day to 2766 but then recovered). The bulls will live to fight another day and stocks will recover if they can push price back above 2784. Who will win?

Interestingly, FBI Special Counsel Mueller, who investigated President Trump, gave a press conference after 11 AM EST where he said if he and his team thought the president did not obstruct justice, they would have said so. In other words, the president was up to nefarious behavior but Trump cannot be charged while in office so the investigation could not render a black and white decision. The stock market tanked and the SPX lost the critical 12-month MA at 2782 after Mueller's comments. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:35 PM EST: The SPX is at 2777. VIX 18.30. Gold 1282. 10-year yield 2.23%.

Note Added 2:37 PM EST: The SPX is at 2775; complete failure below the 2776-2784 critical range. Strap yourself in. The ride may become turbulent from here. VIX 18.32. VIX HOD 19.04. Bears will need to push the VIX above the 19.04 to prove that they mean business.

Note Added 2:40 PM EST: The SPX is at 2772.

Note Added 3:05 PM EST: The SPX is at 2768.

Note Added 3:43 PM EST: The S&P 500 rallies 19 points higher off the 2768 low. The SPX is at 2787 back above the critical 2776-2784 zone. The bulls are throwing confetti.

Note Added 3:52 PM EST: The SPX is at 2779.

Note Added 3:57 PM EST: The SPX is at 2785.

Note Added 4:11 PM EST: The SPX ends the session down 19 points, -0.7%, to 2783 inside the critical 2776-2784 support range. It is a bull win that the SPX regains the critical 12-month MA at 2781-2782 representing a cyclical bull market but by only one point. VIX 17.76. The bulls and bears return to their camps to lick their wounds and prepare for another battle tomorrow. The fight to take hill 2776-2784 continues. The bulls are on one side and the bears on the other. One side will flinch and the other side will win and dictate stock market direction forward. If you listen hard, a harmonica can be heard in the distance echoing across the battlefield just like Gettysburg many decades ago. The bulls and bears know that one side or the other will meet their fate tomorrow.