CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Uber Complacency Signals Significant Market Top At Hand

The bulls are singin' songs and carryin' on. Traders begin Happy Hour early on Friday, guzzling down Fed wine after the US Monthly Jobs Report and buying stocks with reckless abandon. Timmy Trader is throwing darts at a WSJ stock page and buying those tickers. He exclaims, "Why not? The Fed has got our backs and everything will go up." The wage data remains lackluster so inflation will not occur and the Federal Reserve will maintain loose monetary policy forever. The central bankers are the market. Equities catapult higher.

Fred Fafooshnik, known around town for his phobias and fears over investing, took his entire life savings and bot AMZN and AAPL stock. Fred expects to be sleeping on bags of money by the end of the year. Ms Elizabeth, the local school marm, thin as a rail with a bun hairdo, is worried that she missed the train leaving the investment station so she took her entire life savings and told the broker to buy the QQQ's. She expects to be driving a new car in a couple months. The blue-haired gal's at the local quilt club pulled together money and bot GOOGL stock because they are worried they are missing out on the best stock market in human history; at least that is what President Trump calls it.

The CPC and CPCE put/calls remain at uber lows. The global central banker collusion and intervention in markets, just like early 2016, saves equities from the Q4 disaster. The central bank's main mission is always to protect the wealthy class that own large stock portfolios.These central bankers are then rewarded with a quid pro quo, typically lucrative speaking engagements, from the Wall Street investment banks when they leave public office. This is the way the corrupt casino operates.

The low put/calls signal excessive complacency, fearlessness and complete trust that stocks will only go higher from here forward. Volatility confirms the complacency with the VIX printing a 12-handle at 12.87.

It sounds like a broken record the last couple months, but something wicked this way comes. The central banks will not permit the markets to correct so far this year. Many weekly charts are exhibiting topping behavior on tap for this month so the "Sell in May" crew may be correct this year.

Considering the long period of complacency this year, once stocks start moving to the downside, they may fall very rapidly. Do not stick around this stock market on the long side. If you are a young person, do not invest any money in stocks until you see how this plays out over the next two or three months. Get out of the FAANG and other high-flying tech stocks and don't look back.

A pullback in the SPX of 40 to 120 points is expected and perhaps a heck-of-a-lot more maybe over 200 handles. The monthly charts are setting up ugly. A stock market top is likely, say, anytime over the next 3 weeks and the top will be significant leading to a multi-week decline. The weekly charts will be useful for this forecasting and Keystone can pinpoint the tops as they occur if the international followers of the KE Stone blogs are interested. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.