SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

The SPX daily chart continues wanting to top out but the happy news messages keep tweaking prices ever higher. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments on an agreement on enforcement methodology for a US-China trade deal creates another push higher. Ditto the Fed's Evans, a dove, who says an interest rate cut is on the table ahead if inflation remains subdued. The central bankers are the market. Boooiiinnng. Equities receive more love on the happy talk.

The chart indicators remain in negative divergence except for the money flow. With a US-China trade deal imminent and the central bankers promising ongoing easy money, the money flow pops higher. This juice creates a couple more days of upside joy. The expectation is for price to drop one day, due to the neggie d on the other chart indicators (Monday), but then recover for a day to another new price high (today; Tuesday), and at that price high, as long as the money flow does not print another higher high, the top is in again on the daily basis with universal neggie d.

S&P futures are up +9 about five hours before the opening bell for the regular trading session on Tuesday morning. If this happiness remains, the SPX will print another new high at 2911-2916. Simply check the money flow (and other indicators) to see if they are all in neggie d, if so, the top is in again. Stocks will drop unless President Trump, or his henchmen Mnuchin and Kudlow, or the central banks, speak more happy talk. If so, that will squeeze out another couple days of upside.

The upper band at 2928 must be respected, say if a trade deal is announced, but price has already tagged the upper band so the middle band at 2856 is in play and more likely. The lower band at 2805 is also in play going forward. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's so price overtaking 2880 opened the door to 2920. If price tags 2918, that opens the door to 2922. The 2908 level opens the door to 2912. Remember that the rule works in reverse as well and 2's typically lead to 8's.

The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The low put/call ratios continue to want to bite off a big chunk of bull flesh. The red lines show indicators all in neggie d sans the money flow as discussed above.

The purple box for the ADX shows the strong downtrend in Q4 at the end of last year but this long 3-1/2 month uptrend has not been a strong trend, until now. This is very odd market behavior. The bulls will be happy if the ADX continues higher since it will show that the rally has new legs and will extend a while. Bears need the ADX to simply roll back over lower or flatten.

The Aroon green line remains pegged at the maximum ceiling while the red line is at the maximum floor at zero. It does not get any more euphorically bullish than that.

The SPX daily chart will likely top out today on the new price high and want to sell off but the weekly chart still has upside juice available on the weekly basis. So, the stock market will either take a big drop right now (due to uber low put/calls signaling rampant complacency) but then recover in a couple weeks back to new highs again and then print a top later this month or early in May that leads to a multi-week decline, or, stocks will chop with only minor pullbacks for 2 or 3 weeks as the weekly chart tops out, and the big drop and significant multi-week decline begins and occurs in May and June. 
This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Good Friday, 4/19/19: US markets are closed today. The SPX is sitting at 2905 up 13 of the last 17 weeks a phenomenal run. The NDX, SOX, SMH and XSD are all at record highs so obviously tech and chips are the main driver of the stock market this year. None of the FAANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are at all-time record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the closest. Any sogginess in stock trading on Thursday due to the release of the Mueller report was nullified by the pre-holiday and full moon bullishness. Perhaps stocks will finally start to come back down to earth on Monday which is Earth Day. The SPX daily chart should continue to experience a slap down due to the neggie d. The SPX weekly chart is neggie d across all indicators except for the MACD line. This hints at a jog move ahead to likely create the multi-week top. Stocks may retreat next week to satisfy the daily chart but price will come back up due to the long and strong MACD line on the weekly chart, thus, down one week, but the following week, say the week of 4/29 to end the month, May 1 is a Wednesday and FOMC decision day, stocks should recover to top-tick the weekly chart. The S&P 500 weekly chart will likely top out with neggie d at the end of this month or early May and that will lead to a multi-week decline. Perhaps the low put/calls are simply waiting now for the SPX weekly to top out and this extreme euphoria and complacency will send equities down the rabbit hole along with the neggie d.