COPPER Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Potential Ascending Triangle

The central banks collude this year to save global stock markets; it is a repeat of 2016. The purple box shows copper in retreat but the PBOC steps in with triple R cuts. The cuts in reserve requirement ratios allows banks to lend easier to spur the economy. The Federal Reserve quickly followed with Chairman Powell flapping dovish wings. Then the ECB, the BOJ, you get the idea. The central bankers are the market.

Copper jumped higher when China's central bank cut the RRR's. After touching 2.55 intraweek, price leaps higher to 2.75 in a couple weeks time. Copper is a key indicator for the economy and with China pumping stimulus, it was par-tay time ahead for global markets. The world remains awash in liquidity.

Copper ran higher and never looked back. Price hits its head on the 2.95 ceiling for the last two months. The chart indicators are negatively diverged agreeable to price retreating lower. The MACD line, however, is sloping negatively but it would have been better for copper to print 2.95 this week as another matching high to confirm negative divergence. Nonetheless, price has hit a ceiling for many weeks so the bias does appear down.

Copper tagged the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 2.82 is on the table. Copper is down -1.0% to 2.887 as this message is typed Thursday morning. The lower band at 2.62 is also on the table. Stochastics and money flow are overbot.

The RSI is not overbot so that is something that copper bulls can hope for. The blue ascending triangle is also in play which is a bullish pattern. The orange dot shows price now at 2.887. Obviously, the copper bears win bigtime if price falls below 2.88. The 2.82 will likely follow. Bulls win if price breaks out above 2.95. The 2.88-2.95 zone is noise.

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market and has been tracking copper a couple weeks as the main parameter impacting broad stock market direction. Thus, as copper goes, so goes the market.

The chart has a negative bias but it leaves you guessing. If a US-China trade deal is announced, boooiiiinnnggg, copper will likely catapult higher. If the trade deal collapses or is a stupid deal, copper may tank. In early 2016, when the global central bankers colluded and intervened in markets to save the day, copper had a similar pop and then chopped sideways for many months forward. If copper slips away, that would jive with the SPX weekly chart that hints at multi-weeks of weakness after a top prints anytime over the next three weeks. Keystone has no positions in copper currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:22 AM EST, Thursday Morning, 4/25/19: As Keystone finishes his windbag commentary above, copper is now down 3.35, -1.2%, to 2.883. Things are getting interesting. Hang on Nellie. S&P futures are dead flat.

Note Added 7:34 AM EST: Copper is now down 3.15, -1.1%, to 2.885.

Note Added 8:15 AM EST: Copper is now down 3.35, -1.2%, to 2.882. S&P futures +3. VIX 13.18. Both futures and volatility are higher so one of them is wrong.