SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Diveloping

Humorously, waiting for this near-term stock market top is like waiting for Godot. Stocks were goosed strongly around the European close. There is a large OpEx day across the pond as well as here in the States. The MACD on the SPX 2-hour chart continues higher, long and strong, while the other indicators are in neggie d wanting a spankdown to begin. The RSI and stochastics are oversold wanting a pullback. Ditto the red rising wedge. The beat goes on. The tools all say down except for the MACD.

The dotted blue line is today's opening price, that first candlestick above the line is from 9:30 AM EST to 10 AM EST, then the next one is from 10 AM to noon, the next one from noon to 2 PM EST and the current candlestick in yellow, that just started, will run from 2 PM EST to 4 PM EST. Then a new candlestick will start printing Monday morning at 9:30 AM EST. The TICK machine tagged +1000 today, just before munch time, reflecting the euphoric bullishness in the market.

To repeat the standard refrain, the top will be in when the MACD line goes neggie d (slope negatively) as the SPX prints a matching or higher high in price. It is very close now.

The bulls are trying to jam the stock market higher into Monday figuring that the expected FOMC meeting bullishness will kick-in which would then keep stocks elevated into Wednesday afternoon. The last hour of trading today will tell a lot. If the bears are going to growl they better start now.

As soon as the MACD line rolls over, the top is in, but the bulls may try to keep squeezing it higher. The expectation would be for stocks to roll over lower for the remainder of this afternoon and Monday. Positive news may save the day and President Trump will likely tout happy trade talk news this weekend. The VIX is at 12.83, a 12-handle, so the bulls are proudly displaying a feather in their caps. The bears need to spike volatility higher to VIX 13, 14, and higher, to create mayhem. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/16/19: The bulls manage to squeeze out joy into the closing bell on Friday ending up 14 points, +0.5%, to 2822. HOD 2831. LOD 2810. Lo and behold! The SPX prints a matching high on the last 2-hour candlestick and the MACD is dead flat, which qualifies as neggie d. Godot has arrived. The exact top is in for the stock market in the near-term. The only thing that can save the day is King Trump professing happy trade talk news this weekend or the central bankers goosing markets. Trump and Mnuchin, the president's Treasury Secretary henchman, have been announcing happy news at 5:45 PM EST Sunday evenings to goose the futures markets so watch out for that game. Also watch for the PBOC, China's central bank, to flap their dovish wings promising more easy money. The communists may coo dovishly to keep pumping the SSEC higher and try and maintain the coveted 3K level. The central bankers are the market. The first 2-hour candlestick on Monday morning is uber importante. If the stock market was ever set up for a big Monday drop and selloff, this is it. The sentiment is uber bullish while the hourly and daily charts are in neggie d. Monday is important because the bulls will likely keep the stock market buoyant into Wednesday afternoon if they can pump Monday higher. If the charts exert their near-term negativity, along with the uber low put/call ratios, a serious retreat may occur for equities and not even the expected FOMC meeting bullishness may be able to save it. If there is negative news this weekend concerning trade or central bankers, Katy bar the door. That will be a big negative catalyst and with the set-up, stocks would be expected to drop like rocks. Monday may be a very exciting stock market day.