The VIX 200-day MA dictates whether the stock market is in a near-term and short-term bull market versus a bear market. Bears win above the 200-day MA. Bulls win below the 200-day MA. The VIX moves inversely to the SPX 90% or more of the time. The VIX is currently trading at 15.87 with S&P futures up +12 about 5 hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session.
The Keybot the Quant algorithm calls out VIX 19.90 as a critical line in the sand. If the VIX rises above 19.90, the stock market could potentially drop into free fall.
VIX fell below the 200 a few days ago paving the way for the stock market bulls. Price came up to back kiss the 200 with a tweezer top and failed. That may lead to a day or few of lower volatility (higher stocks). Very interestingly, the VIX is up +1% this morning and the US futures are also higher about +0.5% across the board, thus, one of them is wrong.
If the VIX remains below 16.53, the bulls throw confetti as the stock market rallies higher. If the VIX rises to 16.54-19.90, the stock market will have a negative bias and move sideways to sideways lower going forward. If VIX rises above 19.91, the stock market will be dropping like a stone. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.