SPX S&P 500 Monthly and Daily Charts; Keystone's Signals Verify Ongoing Cyclical Bear Market

As it says in Samuel, "Oh, 'how the mighty have fallen'." The SPX crashes from 2941 to 2350 a drop of -20.1% into a bear market, by a hair, and only for one day. Equities are recovering with the dead-cat bounce. Using the -20% guideline off a top to identify a bear market is chump analysis. Of course, like the -10% correction guideline, they are important metrics and help identify which indexes and sectors are moving lower faster than others. However, this near-term bounce takes away the bear market based on the -20% criteria. Do not follow this -20% criteria as your bear market guideline; instead monitor Keystone's Market Signals.

Make no mistake about it. The stock market is in a confirmed cyclical bear market currently. This is verified by several key signals.

ST (Short-Term), IT (Intermediate-Term) and LT (Long-Term) Market Signals
The NYA lost the 40-week MA. Cyclical Bear Market.
The 20-week MA stabs down through the 50-week MA on the UPS weekly chart. Cyclical Bear Market.
The SPX lost the critical 12-month MA (Keystone calls this the "cliff"). Cyclical Bear Market.
The slope of the SPX 6-month MA turns negative. Cyclical Bear Market.
The slope of the SPX 150-day MA turns negative. Cyclical Bear Market.
The slopes of the SPX 10-week MA and 40-week MA are negative. Cyclical Bear Market.

VST (Very Short Term) Market Signals
VIX below 200-day MA. VST bull.
SPX 30-minute chart 8 MA is under 34 MA. VST bear. Watch this closely.
SPX 60-minute chart price is above 200 EMA. VST bull. Watch this closely.

To further verify the cyclical bear market, the indexes are below their 200-day MA's, another nail in the bull's coffin. For the Wall Street analysts to achieve their lofty SPX 3000-plus end-of-year targets, they must see all six of those cyclical bear parameters turn back into cyclical bull signals. New all-time highs will never occur again unless ALL six of those parameters turn bullish.

Watch the 150-day MA slope as shown in the chart. It is at 2758.81. If this flattens and begins to curl slightly higher, it will be the first signal that the bulls are trying to reverse the uber negativity in markets. Watch this closely. Keystone's 150-Day MA Slope Indicator signaled a cyclical bear market ahead starting in early December.

The monthly chart shows the 6-month flattening and threatening to roll over in June but as usual, the central bankers always save the day with their global collusion with Keynesian money-printing. The central bankers are the market. However, the 6-month MA now slopes negative ushering in the ongoing cyclical bear market.

It was a big deal when the 12-month MA was lost. Keystone described that as it occurred in real-time. Once stocks went off the 12-month MA cliff edge it was Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight. If the bulls regain the 12-month MA it will be a huge deal and tell you that the bulls definitely are in a strong recovery rally that has power to the upside. The SPX should come up to back kiss the 12-month MA at 2718.30 since it such a key moving average. That may occur in the mid to late February, maybe early March, time frame (stocks may take a quick flush lower now in the VST followed by an immediate super sharp recovery taking stocks into a potential late winter high). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.