VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The stock market bulls are slapped in the face day after day. S&P futures are down -10 heading into the Monday opening bell for the regular trading session. The VIX moved above the 200-day MA in early October; this is the exact time that the bears slit the bulls throat. The bears have been in control of the stock market ever since. Note that back kiss of the 200 seven days ago. The VIX came down for the back test and to make a bounce or die decision, and chooses to bounce from a 16-handle to the 23-handle stabbing the stock market bulls in the face.

The bulls battle back sending the VIX from 23 down to an 18-handle over the last couple days but bulls will not be able to enjoy a sustainable upside rally in stocks until the VIX falls below 16.31. VIX is currently trading at 19.01.

Keybot the Quant remains short the market but is champing at the bit to go long. For the volatility parameter, Keybot wants to see VIX below 14.95 before it will contribute to strong upside in stocks. Watch the 200-day MA at 16.31; it tells you if the stock market will trend up or down for the days ahead. Bears win with VIX above 16.31. Bulls win with VIX below 16.31. Bulls win big-time with a huge upside stock market rally perhaps into year end if the VIX drops below 14.95. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:39 AM EST: The S&P futures are down -7 and VIX is at 18.91.

Note Added 9:47 AM EST: Stocks are trading on Monday. The SPX is down 7 points to 2729. VIX 18.71.

Note Added 7:35 PM EST: Stocks are smacked hard in the Monday session. The SPX plummets 46 points, -1.666%, to 2691. VIX 20.10.