VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Battle at 200-Day MA Determines Short-Term Bull or Bear Market

Keystone's VIX 200-Day MA Cross Indicator is an excellent short-term market forecaster. Stock market bulls win big below the 200-day MA now at 13.88 while bears win big above 13.88. Price is at 13.42 with the S&P futures -6 as this message is typed four hours before the opening bell for the Thursday regular session (the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST).

Obviously, stock market trouble occurs above 13.88 but bulls are fine if the VIX remains under 13.88. The NYA 40-week MA Cross Indicator (see previous chart) is a predictor of the intermediate term (weeks and months) while the VIX 200-Day MA Cross Indicator is for short-term market moves (days, weeks, sometimes months). The NYA is at 12649 only one tiny point above its key 40-week MA at 12648. Thus, it is easy to develop a guideline for the path forward.

If the NYA remains above 12648 and rallies higher (bullish), while the VIX remains below 13.88 (bullish), the bulls will be throwing confetti while singing and dancing. Traders will be drinking Fed wine celebrating new all-time record highs day after day.

If the NYA fails below 12648 moving lower (bearish), while the VIX remains below 13.88 (bullish), the stock market will bumble along choppy sideways with a downward bias for the weeks and months ahead.

If the NYA remains above 12648 (bullish), but the VIX moves above 13.88 (bearish), the stock market will be soggy in the days and week or three ahead but after that will recover and rally again on the weekly basis.

If the NYA fails below 12648 (bearish) and the VIX moves above 13.88 (bearish), it's ovah, as they say in Brooklyn. Stocks will collapse lower and remain sick for the weeks, and potentially months, ahead.

This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 6/21/18, at 10:10 AM EST: The NYA collapses at the opening bell. The VIX is printing at 13.70, ho, whoa, ho, check that, price spikes to 13.97 above the 200-day MA. The bad scenario is playing out. VIX is at 13.93 above the 13.88 bull-bear line in the sand. Watch it closely. Bears will need to send the VIX above 14 and 15 to begin growling loudly. The SPX is down 12 points at 2756 testing the 20-day MA support at 2754 so the S&P 500 will bounce or die from here. VIX prints 13.88 sitting exactly on the 200-day MA. The market is making a major decision today. The bulls must keep the VIX below 13.89, otherwise, they are toast.

Note Added Thursday, 6/21/18, at 10:20 AM EST: The VIX pops to 14.19. SPX is down 16 points to 2751 failing below the 20-day. The 50-day MA support is 2713. The NYA is at 12562 well below the key 40-week MA indicating a cyclical bear market pattern ahead.

Note Added Monday morning, 6/25/18: The VIX finishes last week at 13.77 under the critical 200-day MA at 13.89 but a couple hours before the Monday opening bell, the VIX is above 15 to 15.20 with S&P futures down -16. The battle continues.