TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

As December began, the standard deviation bands are squeezing in tight (pink arrorws) so youi know a huge move is coming but the tight bands do not forecast direction. And boinnngggg. The move is higher in yields (lower note and bond prices). The Aroon cross (green circle) was the go signal for higher yields ahead.

The red lines show overbot RSI and stochastics and negative divergence across the indicators. The MACD may have a tiny sliver of life left but that would likely only cause a bump higher in yield for one day or so then the 10-year yield should roll over to the downside. The chart is weak and wants lower yields ahead.

The upper band is violated so the middle band at 2.70% and rising is on the table. The daily chart indicates a preference for the 10-year yield to move downward towards the 2.70%-2.75% range. The 2.87%-2.89% resistance is key.

The TNX weekly chart will likely top out during this month and early March. The daily chart above shows a pull back in yields for the coming days or week or so but then yield will likely move higher again to satisfy the weekly chart. A more significant top in yields should occur late this month or in early March so the 10-year may move up to 2.90%-3.00%. However, at that point the yield will likely spend many months bumping along sideways through 2.50%-3.00%.

After a few months of sideways, yields should then sneak higher into the end of the year. Of course the charts will have to be monitored. A recession or other events can change the direction of yields quickly. The CPI data drops on Wednesday and this inflation data may be the most important event of the week that will move yields.This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.