UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; 50 MA Cross; 15-Week Lookback

The utilities are at a critical juncture right now that will determine the intermediate term future of the stock market ahead (weeks and months). Keystone has explained this many times. You have to watch two things with utilities; the old-timers have been watching these parameters for decades. The weekly trend in utilities, as determined by a comparison to its value 15 weeks ago, is very important as well as the 50-week MA cross.

Comparing UTIL to 15 weeks ago determines if price is in a weekly uptrend or weekly downtrend. Prices remain below the levels from 15 weeks ago so the utes remain in a weekly downtrend. A downtrend portends trouble for the broad stock market in the weeks and months ahead. In a strong bull market for stocks, the utes will be in a weekly uptrend.

The 50-week MA is a trap-door, that typically ushers in serious stock market trouble when it fails. It is very surprising that stocks have not pulled back due to the weekly downtrend and the failure of the 50-week. Two weeks ago, price came up to back kiss the 50, see the long shadow there on that red candlestick, and was spanked back down. Now price comes up again gunning for the 50-week another time.

For this week, the number 15 weeks ago is the pink circle at 673.11. For all of next week, the number form 15 weeks ago will be the blue circle at 656.19. Thus, for this week, the 50-week at 656.81 and then the 673.11 are very important. Next week it is the 656.81 and 656.19. Note the cluster that deems the 656-ish level extremely critical for the next two weeks.

Thus, after all that windbag stuff, the market bears must hold the line at UTIL 656 and not permit price to move above. If UTIL stays below and starts downwards, the broad stock market will roll over for significant downside ahead.

If UTIL comes up and pierces up through 656 antytime over the next two weeks and drives higher, stocks are going to continue rallying and the SPX will be moving above 2300. At lunch time Monday, UTIL is at 651.02. The bull-bear line in the sand that determines the fate of markets for weeks and months ahead is 656. Which side will win this battle in the coming days? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added at 2:31 PM EST on Thursday, 12/15/16: UTIL provides drama this week. The 50-week MA is at 657 right now so that is a key line in the sand. UTIL printed above the 657 but could not hold the level. As yields ran higher after the slightly hawkish Fed announcement, interest-rate sensitive stocks, like utilities, were beaten. UTI L is printing at 649 right now so the market bears are in the game and holding price under that important 655-658 zone. The drama continues.