UPS Weekly Chart 20/50-Week MA Cross Cyclical Bear Market H&S

Keystone's UPS 20/50-Week MA Cross signal remains in a cyclical bear market pattern. As you recall, Keystone highlighted the top in UPS late last year and as this year began. UPS receives the negative divergence smack down in January (red lines and arrow). The 20/50 MA negative cross was highlighted in May a very negative market warning signal which has come to pass with the mini-crash in the stock market. If the 20-week MA is under the 50-week MA for UPS (since it is a key global shipping bellwether), the broad stock market is in a cyclical bear pattern. If the 20-week MA is above the 50-week MA, then stocks are in a cyclical bull market pattern as had been the case for a very long multi-year period.

Price begins today at 96.63 and as long as price is under the 20 MA at 98.67 the 20 MA will be dragged lower making for happier bears. The bulls want UPS to recover as fast as possible and push the 20 MA back above the 50 MA to prove the long bull market rally can be sustained. For now, and for the last four months, the stock market remains in a cyclical bear market as per Keystone's UPS Indicator above. 

The pink lines show an H&S (head and shoulders) pattern in play with head at 109 and neckline at 93. Note how price bounced from the neck yesterday and did not fail. If 93 fails, then the downside target to satisfy the H&S would be 77. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.