TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart

In March, Keystone forecasted the 10-year up to the 2.30 to 2.40% range which occurs. Now what? The yield violates the upper standard deviation band (pink) so the a move back to the middle band, which is also the 20-day MA, at 2.09% and rising, is on the table. Yield broke up through the 200-day MA at 2.18% but has not yet back kissed this support. Ditto the 50-day MA at 2.21%. The yield is at 2.275% as this message is typed. The RSI and histogram indicators are stalling but the MACD line and stochatics remain long and strong wanting to see another higher high or at least a matching high to the 2.50% a couple weeks ago. Stochastics are moving into overbot territory but the RSI has not.

In the shorter term, a move to 2.15% to 2.25% is on the table. This will satisfy the upper band violation and provide back kisses of the moving averages. The long and strong MACD line and stochastics, however, want yield to come back up to 2.50% again. The key going forward is when the MACD line and stochastics negatively diverge and that cannot be possible until yield revisits the 2.50% and higher level. Thus, the projection would be a move lower to 2.15%-2.25% in the shorter term, say June-July, then back up again to 2.50% say in July-August then yield should assume a more sideways nature forward say through 2.20%-2.60% into the end of the year.

If the US stock market stumbles and pulls back for a long needed correction, the expectation is lower yields with the 10-year favoring the low end of the estimates down to the 2.00%-2.30% range. A move higher to the 2.80%-3.00% range, that many strategists expect, due to a potential Fed rate hike, is currently not on the table but the chart can be revisited in a couple weeks or month to see how it progresses. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.