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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

VIX Daily Chart Pivot at 200-Day MA

The VIX ends yesterday at 14.56 at the important 200-day MA at 14.66. The 200-day MA is a critical bull-bear signal for the stock market. Thus, bulls win big with VIX under 14.66; the SPX will be running to 2120. The bears win big above 14.66 as the stock market sells off.

Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, identifies VIX 16.25 as a key bull-bear level affecting broad market direction. So the algo will not be impressed, from a bearish perspective, unless VIX moves above 16.25.

In summary, VIX under 14.66 and the bulls are the clear winner going forward. Between 14.66 and 16.25 the stock market will leak lower but it will be questionable how much juice the bears have. Above 16.25 the stock market will be selling off in force. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:38 AM:  The VIX collapsed to a 13 handle handing the bulls the victory. The SPX (S&P 500), INDU (Dow Industrials) and RUT (Russell 2000) print new all-time highs. Higher financials, lower volatility and higher copper are fueling the upside. Fed Chair Yellen is flapping her dovish wings in front of the Senate Banking Committee creating market joy and the Europgroup approves the Greece reforms. The future is so bright you gotta where shades; everyone is donning the Fed's rose-colored glasses. Watch JJC 31.97 identified by the Keystone the Quant algorithm. The upside stock market rally is real and has legs if JJC moves above 31.97. If JJC stays under 31.97 the upside in stocks is limited and should stall. Remember, the CPC and CPCE put/calls are signaling a near-term market top any day. The VIX dropped to a 13-handle further verifying a lack of fear that markets will ever go down, thus, they will go down. So a near-term top is expected today or tomorrow and the bears should receive a turn at bat. Use JJC 31.97 as a major guide. JJC is at 31.70 on the bear side so the bulls cannot receive further upside stock market juice.

Note Added 12:08 PM:  The VIX collapses to 14.12 keeping stocks higher. Interestingly, the JJC loses ground to 31.53 a distance away from the JJC 31.97 the bulls need. Stocks are receiving lift from the lower volatility but the much needed strength from copper is petering out.

Note Added 2:45 PM: The VIX drops to 13.76 the lows of the day; the bulls are punching the bears in the face.

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