SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead and this agrees with the SPX under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1978 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. The BPSPX remains under 70 and moving lower a bearish indication. The important NYA 40-week MA cross highlighted on the weekend, an important Keystone cyclical signal, shows price under the 40-week MA at 10630 ushering in a cyclical bear market for the months ahead. So things continue to shape up for bears.

For today, the failure in financials is pulling markets lower. US regulators threaten more legal action against the big banks so billions more in fines and legal fees will affect the banks' bottom lines over the coming months. Keybot the Quant whipsaws over the last day and is now on the short side again with XLF 23.12 identified as the most important parameter currently dictating broad market direction. XLF is at 23.01 so equities remain weak. Watch RTH 62.10 since a failure from this level will create signficant market downside. RTH is at 62.35.

The chart above shows important S/R at 1988, 1985-1986, 1973, 1960-1961, 1951, 1924 and 1910. Price is playing around in the very wide 1924-1951 zone. If the SPX stays under 1951 today, that will signal more weakness ahead targeting 1924 support. A move above 1951 resistance will open the door for a test at the critical 1960-1961 resistance which includes the all-important 100-day MA at 1961. The indicators are hinting at some sideways ahead as the bulls and bears sort out who is stronger. Yesterday, the SPX back kissed the 50-day MA at 1974 and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1978. Today price back kisses the 100-day MA at 1961, all three are successful back tests, so price continues to stumble lower. The 1951 price is an important pivot level today.

The 150-day MA is 1930 and was tapped for support three days ago. Watch XLF 23.12 since it dictates market direction the remainder of the day. XLF is at 23.03 continuing the market negativity. Monitor the 8/34 cross shown in the chart above. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:55 AM: XLF 23.05 with the bulls trying to push the banks higher. RTH 62.37.

Note Added 12:00 PM: XLF 23.04. RTH 62.37. SPX 1953.

Note Added 1:21 PM: XLF 23.05. RTH 62.41. SPX 1954. The XLF ventured higher to back test the important 23.12 but could not break up through. The battle for XLF 23.12 continues. The 10-year yield is down to 2.36% creating a deflationary vibe.

Note Added 1:46 PM: XLF 23.03. RTH 62.39. SPX 1953. TRIN is 0.96 at the 1.00 neutral level unwilling to commit to the bull or bear side today (below one is bullish and above one is bearish). Keystone took profits on both ATRS and RIG exiting the long trades but will reenter long going forward; both stocks should have more upside for the weeks ahead. Coal stocks are becoming very attractive for a bounce. CLF is setting up for a bounce but no positions in coal or iron ore as yet.

Note Added 3:09 PM: XLF 22.94. RTH 62.25. SPX 1944. Equities leak lower but note that the retail stocks have not broken down at the RTH 62.10 so for now the market downside should not get out of hand. That said the SPX is down -22 and Dow off -211. Financials lead lower with XLF -1.5%.

Note Added 3:24 PM: RTH 62.15 only one nickel from the bull-bear line at RTH 62.10 identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Markets will recover if the bulls can hold the line at RTH 62.10. If RTH fails at 62.10, markets are going down the rabbit hole and the weakness will be sustainable going forward. RTH 62.15.... 62.16 ........ bulls know the stakes are high so they will be pushing RTH higher with all their might...... Keystone bot back RIG opening a new long position again. Keystone bot CLF opening a new long position. CLF has collapsed and the daily chart is not fully positively diverged as yet. Cliffs fell off the cliff and is due for a dead-cat bounce. The RSI, histogram and stochastics are positively diverged on the daily so a bounce should occur for CLF but price will likely come back down again for another look. CLF is reaching a washed-out stage where the risk-reward is starting to favor the long side but it is a dangerous and speculative trade.

Note Added 3:35 PM:  RTH 62.20. Bears need another dime lower.

Note Added 3:40 PM: RTH 62.19..... 62.16 ..... 62.18 ... bulls are fighting for their lives trying to hold the RTH 62.11 support. It  will be interesting to see if the full moon manifests positivity overnight, or not. Markets are bullish about two-thirds of the time moving through the full moon which hits at about 7 AM EST tomorrow morning.

Note Added 3:56 PM: RTH 62.12, whoa, the bulls are cutting it close hanging on by a thread with minutes remaining............. the clock just fell off the wall at the Eccles Building. Fed Chair Yellen is under her desk. Phone calls, emails and test messages directed at former Fed Chairman Bernanke are going unanswered.

Note Added 3:58 PM: RTH 62.08. Boom. Failure occurs. Markets are in big trouble.