TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart

The 10-year pops yesterday off the falling wedge and positive divergence (green lines). A cease-fire is announced in Ukraine a couple hours ago launching global equity markets higher. Traders see less need for safety so they exit notes and bonds (lower prices) and yields rise. The 10-year is at the green dot at 2.46%. Note the confluence of horizontal support, the 50-day MA at 2.482% and dropping, and upper standard deviation band (pink) at 2.480% and dropping. Thus, yield will tease the strong 2.47%-2.50% resistance ceiling where either a bounce, or die, decision will occur.

The 200-day MA is sloping negatively which is a continued sign of stronger notes and bonds (higher prices lower yields). The TNX weekly chart had pierced and hugged the lower standard deviation band so a bounce was in order, which is occurring, which will initially target 2.50-2.51%. The 200-week MA holds at 2.384% and this important very long term moving average is flattening hinting that the drop in yields will come to an end in the weeks and months ahead. The MACD line on the weekly chart remains weak so the end result for the intermediate and long term for the weeks and months ahead may be a sideways move through 2.2%-2.6%.

In the short term, the long and strong indicators above want further highs in yield even after yield will pull back so a fight should occur at 2.47%-2.51%. Bond bears win at 2.51% and higher. Bond bulls win if yield stays under 2.47% and trails lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:02 AM on Thursday, 9/4/14:  Draghi surprises markets firing the QE money bazooka and lowering the key benchmark rate essentially to zero adopting a ZIRP policy. The euro collapses to 1.2997 and recovers, but is now falling under 1.30 again printing new lows. European indexes run higher. US stocks print new all-time highs. The dollar index jumps well above 83 in reaction to the euro dropping. Oil and other commodities trade lower due to the rising dollar. The TNX was rejected from the 2.45%-2.51% resistance gauntlet yesterday and now is back up to 2.46% for another look. The daily chart indicators remain long and strong so higher yields are desired after any one or three day pull back occurs. The TNX weekly chart shows a 20-week MA dropping to 2.52% moving lower. The 50-day MA is 2.48% so in the near-term the battle should continue at 2.45%-2.51% and yield will likely target the 50-day MA resistance first.

Note Added 9:15 AM on Tuesday, 9/9/14: The 10-year yield is up to 2.50% teasing the 2.45%-2.51% resistance gauntlet. The fight continues.