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Sunday, September 21, 2014

SPX Weekly Chart Rising Wedges Negative Divergence

We have watched the recent tops form and result in spank downs as the negative divergence, overbot conditions and rising wedges dictate, however, the bears cannot gain any downside traction. The central bankers keep pumping stock markets higher. Last week was a double barrel bazooka with the Fed remaining accomodative and the PBOC adding stimulus so the SPX gains +1.3% on the week and overcomes the chart negativity. The maroon lines on the right hand side show universal neggie d across all indicators as the price prints a new weekly high. The indicators are no longer enthusiastic about seeing price climb to higher and higher highs.

Note the ADX in the 20's that was starting to indicate a strong trend but now goes flaccid and deflates under 24. If the rally was robust and wanting to continue strongly higher, the ADX should be above 30 and sloping higher and higher. The trend is actually lackluster and flat despite the new all-time highs. This hints at a potential sideways move ahead; sideways to sideways lower. The weekly volume is robust for bulls but is skewed by the Quadruple Witching OpEx and index rebalancing last week. Nonetheless a move into the 1925-1975 area would be prudent to see which side can print the larger volume numbers. The MACD line cross favors bears but only by a tiny hair. Watch the MACD cross closely. The weekly chart favors the bears and forecasts lower markets ahead for the weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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