SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 6/30/14

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 6/30/14. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX prints new all-time highs last week in the 1960’s. June began at 1924 and ends on Monday as well as the second quarter and the first one-half of the year; EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1, respectively. The bulls will log the fifth consecutive up month unless a market event occurs overnight that would dump 40 SPX points on Monday, a -2% drop, (unlikely) so it appears the bulls already have the up month in the bag. The Fed wine is flowing like water. Trading is free and easy simply buy anything since Fed Chair Yellen is guaranteeing equity upside forever with ZIRP and also says the stock market is undervalued. The central bankers are the market.

Interestingly, the SPX closing high at 1962.87 is already over one week old occurring back on OpEx Friday, 6/20/14. Equities spike higher last Tuesday to print the all-time intraday high at 1968.17 but give up the gains and cannot print a new closing high. Watch the 1962.87 like a hawk since this price level will provide more market lift if the bulls can print a new all-time closing high.

Price dropped last week to finally back kiss the 20-day MA at 1946.43 and rising but the back test was cheesy. Price should show far more respect to the 20. The upper standard deviation band was penetrated so a trip back to the middle band, the 20-day MA, was on tap, and did occur, even if it was cheesy, satisfying this technical requirement. The bulls score two large volume up days but the one is OpEx Friday on 6/20/14 and the other last Friday, 6/27/14, with the Russell rebalancing, so not exactly ringing endorsements of the upside price move. The higher volume on these two days is more purely technical providing less credit for the higher prices.

The new moon was Friday early morning and markets were weak moving through the new moon as would be expected. Equities recovered into the closing bell on the upside bias caused by the Russell rebalancing. The bulls are salivating at the days ahead since this week is a four-day holiday-shortened week with markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day July 4th holiday. Equities are typically bullish the two days in front of the three-day holiday weekend. Volume dwindles and it may now turn into pure vapor and fumes. Traders return slowly the week of 7/7/14 and some piggy-back vacations, so the volume does not typically pick up again until later in the week or during the week of 7/14/14.

Since a new month, new quarter and the second one-half of the year is beginning, new money typically flows into the market creating lift. Everything is going the bulls way. In fact, many have decided to continue drinking the limitless Fed wine from this weekend all the way into the holiday next weekend. Even Yellen is donning a lamp shade dancing through the halls of the Eccles Building with Fed members following behind in a congo line; all in a drunken glee impressed with themselves that they can create a higher stock market forever.

Many indications such as CPC, CPCE, SKEW, VIX, SPXA150R, Keybot the Quant algorithm's +81 overbot conditions, sentiment indicators and Bob Shiller's CAPE ratio, to name a few, highlighted last week forecast trouble ahead for equities. Complacency is rampant. No wonder the long traders will be staggering drunks all week long buying stocks without paying any attention to the actual ticker symbols. There is no fear or worry. On top of all this fearlessness and complacency, the start of the month and pending holiday bullish seasonality factors only serve to pour more Fed juice into the punch bowl. At the peak of all this joy, perhaps this is when the slap in the head with a 2x4 begins instead? Considering the light projected volume for the days ahead, it is easy to keep markets buoyant to the upside, however, if an event occurs the markets would likely be ill-prepared to handle the negativity and the low volume would exacerbate the bearish impact on equities.

For the SPX starting at 1961, the bulls only need one-half point, to punch up through 1961.50, and the confetti will be in the air with an acceleration to 1963 and 1968 all-time highs occurring quickly. Watch the S&P overnight futures to see if any hint of positivity occurs, if so, put on your party hats since the bulls are likely going to print a new all-time high. The bears must keep the overnight futures negative at all costs. In addition, market bears need to push the SPX nine points lower, under 1952, or they got nothing. A drop under 1952 will quickly drop price to 1949 for a bounce or die market decision. A move through 1953-1961 is sideways action for Monday. The bulls are driving the bus as the markets take on an eerie calm.

1968 (6/24/14 All-Time Intraday High: 1968.17) (6/24/14 Intraday High for 2014: 1968.17)

1968.17 Previous Week’s High

1964

1963 (6/20/14 All-Time Closing High: 1962.87) (6/20/14 Closing High for 2014: 1962.87)

1961.47 Friday HOD

1961

1960.96 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

1960

1959

1957

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1952.18 Friday LOD

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1946.43 (20-day MA)

1944.69 Previous Week’s Low

1942

1940

1937

1933.27 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

1931

1929

1928

1926

1925

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1923.57 June Begins Here

1923

1920

1919

1917

1914

1912

1910

1909.58 (50-day MA)

1907

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1894

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889

1886

1885

1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)

1882.88 (20-week MA)

1882

1880

1879.24 (100-day MA)

1879

1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)

1877

1874

1872

1871

1868

1867

1865

1862

1859

1856.48 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

1855

1853

1852

1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here

1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1843

1842

1841

1840

1839

1838

1837.51 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)

1837

1835

1832

1831

1828

1827

1824.90 (200-day MA; not tested for 19 months extremely odd behavior)

1824

1820

1816

1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)

1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52)

1810

1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)

1808

1807.82 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

1806

1803

1802.02 (50-week MA)

1801

1800

1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)

1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)

1796

1793

1791

1788

1785

1783

1782

1781

1777

1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)

1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)

1770

1768

1763

1762

1759

1756

1752

1748

1747

1745

1740

1737

1733 (10/17/13 and 1018/13 Gap-Up: 1733.15-1736.72)

1730 (9/19/13 Intraday Top: 1729.86)

1726 (9/18/13 Closing Top: 1725.52)

1722

1720

1711

1710 (8/2/13 Intraday Top: 1709.67)

1708

1706

1703

1700

1698

1697

1696