Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 6/6/14; Monthly Jobs Report; Consumer Credit

The Monthly Jobs Report is 217K (in line with consensus) with a 6.3% unemployment rate (unchanged) and average hourly earnings increase +0.2% as expected. Average weekly hours are unchanged. The labor participation rate remains unchanged at a shameful 62.8%. Last month’s 288K is revised lower to 282K. Healthcare and hotel and hospitality sectors post job gains. Government jobs drop mainly due to postal worker job losses. The jobs report meets expectations but the slack in the employment sector remains. The takeoff expected for the economy once the winter weather ended is simply not materializing.

The 10-year yield is unresponsive sitting at 2.57%. Yields are tame since the economy remains lackluster. Copper is taking the pipe today down -1.6%. Gold is flat at 1254. US futures move higher. S&P +4. Dow +50. Nasdaq +9. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets ahead. Bears got nothing without the negative 8/34 MA cross. For the SPX today, starting at a new all-time closing high at 1940, the bulls only need to touch the 1942 handle and boom, another upside acceleration will occur and price will make its way to 1950. The bulls are pumping futures to make this a reality. The bears need to push under 1923 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1924-1941 is sideways action. Equities are enjoying a strong 3-week upside move.

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo identifies copper and commodities as the two key parameters currently impacting market direction. Watch JJC 37.90 and GTX 4969, respectively. Bulls need higher copper, JJC above 37.90, and, at least at the start today, this is not going to happen since copper is busy committing hari-kari in the bathroom. Bears need GTX under 4969 to create solid weakness in equities. Equities will remain flat with a slight upward bias if GTX stays above 4969. If GTX drops under 4969, and the SPX loses 1923, Keybot will likely flip short. The CPCE under 0.50 for the last couple days at multi-year lows signals uber complacency and a significant market top likely occurring now or in the coming days.

Dollar/yen 102.21. Note how the dollar/yen dropping is not having the same impact on stocks and bonds as in recent months. The euro/dollar/yen relationship has to be sorted out as the days play out. Draghi needs to trade in his pea-shooter for a bazooka since the ECB stimulus announcement results in a euro above 1.36 above where it was before his announcement. Consumer Credit is released at 3 PM showing how much debt and what type of debt the consumer is taking on. Watch GTX 4969 as the rudder guiding the market directional ship today. Bulls win if they keep GTX above 4969. Bears win if they push GTX under 4969. Considering all the hype, the market reaction to both the ECB decision and jobs report is muted. The David Tepper comments create much of the market upside this week.