Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 5/15/14; WMT; CPI; Empire State; Industrial Production; Philly Fed; JCP; JWN

WMT earnings disappoint and it trades down -3% pre-market. This will dampen the retail sector mood. Keystone' salgo, Keybot the Quant, is focused on retail and financials as the two key market directional drivers currently. Bulls win with RTH above 58.69. Bears win with XLF under 21.85. If XLF loses 21.85, and the SPX drops under 1886, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are -3. If the weak start occurs to begin the day watch XLF 21.85 since any selling will be meaningless and equities will recover today if the XLF 21.85 does not fail.

For the SPX starting at 1889, the bulls need to push above 1897 to accelerate immediately to 1902. The bears need to push under 1886, three points lower, where the futures are now, to accelerate the move lower. A move through 1887-1896 is sideways action for today. The 8 MA is below the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets ahead. Seasonality factors are bullish such as the markets typically run higher through the full moon which occurred yesterday but the bears are trying to push lower.

The bears have an advantage due to weak Walmart results since this should keep the RTH in bear territory. If the RTH remains under 58.69, and XLF above 21.85, status quo, equities will float along sideways with a slight upward bias. CPI, Jobless Claims and Empire State Mfg Survey are released shortly. Fed's Dudley speaks 8:30 AM. TIC data (foreign investment in US) is 9 AM. Industrial Production 9:15 AM. Philly Fed and a Housing Market Index are released at 10 AM. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Fed Chair Yellen speaks this evening at 6:10 PM EST. Watch RTH 58.69, XLF 21.85 and SPX 1897 and 1886 to determine market direction today.