SPX Daily Chart Tight Standard Deviation Bands

Markets continue along a whipsaw path, up one minute down the next, stumbling sideways through 1840-1880 (pink channel) for seven weeks. The standard deviation bands are squeezing in tight so a big move is afoot over coming days that takes price either to the top band at 1885-1890, or to the lower band at 1835-1841, in a heartbeat. So a move of about 20 or 30 handles that will likely continue. The red lines show the two negative divergence spank downs but the bears are having difficulty gaining any downside traction. The Fed crew is busy walking back Chair Yellen's statement about a rate hike occurring six months after QE ends which creates market lift. Also talk of ECB stimulus coming. And most of all, the dollar/yen rises above 102.30 to 102.35 so the weaker yen pumps stocks higher. Banzai! S&P futures are +6 a couple hours before the opening bell.

The 20-day MA at 1863.07 is key; the bulls are happy they closed above this critical moving average yesterday; bears were happy the day before for closing under. The price action and indicators show the sideways nature occurring. This behavior reinforces the thought that stocks will squirt out in one direction strongly up or strongly down, probably as this week finishes. A Bradley turn occurred on Saturday so the window is open for markets to commit to a direction. Another Bradley turn occurs on 4/6/14, then 4/27/14, then 5/6/14. So markets may take on some wild gyrations for the next six weeks; big moves up and down.

The 150-day MA keeps sloping strongly higher so the bulls are not worried or concerned. Market trouble will be confirmed when the 150 flattens and rolls over to the downside. Price likes to continually back test the 50-day MA, now at 1833, from above and below. The recent long stint without testing was about 8 weeks October into December. Similarly, price is above the 50-day for about 7 weeks now so a visit to the 50-day MA should be on tap in early April. Note the strong selling volume candle three days ago. Stocks were thrown overboard. This encourages dip-buyers and the end of quarter, Q1, window dressing is also in play helping bulls. The large volume down day is the highest volume since last June--when markets printed the strongest buying volume identifying the stock market bottom. Does the uber high selling volume identify this area as the market top?

Money flow is under 50% helping bears. RSI and stochastics are above 50% in bull territory. Watch these levels as a gauge of who wins. The MACD line cross remains negative (red circle) so watch to see if the bulls can reverse the cross, or not. Price will eventually move out of this 1840-1880 sideways range. S&P futures want price to explore the top side to begin today. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.