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Tuesday, December 31, 2013

SPX 2-Hour Chart Megaphone Expansion Pattern Overbot Negative Divergence

Time to pick up the handle on the brown megaphone and yell, "the top is in." The brown expansion pattern remains in play with price continuing to test the upper trend line. Remember we were waiting for one more move up in price because of the long and strong RSI and MACD line (green lines), and, here we are. The SPX took out the prior intraday all-time high from 12/27/13. The HOD shown on the chart at 1845.61 is currently the new all-time record high for the SPX.

Now that price came back up, note the universal negative divergence (red lines). It took a few days but the chart finally set up for a roll over. The 1-hour and 30-minute charts have some VST juice so if they jog for a few candlesticks before rolling over, that would be about 2 to 4 hours of trading time, which would encompass today's trading. Thus, projection is for the SPX to now move sideways to sideways lower moving forward. Interestingly, the new moon is only about 17 hours away, markets are closed tomorrow, and equities are typically weak moving through the new moon. The major Bradley turn is right now as well hitting just as the 2-hour chart tops. New money should come into markets the first few days of the year which is a bull plus. The gap at 1833-1835 should come into play moving forward the next day or few, and the expectation would be for price to move below. VIX just turned one penny positive--the opposite of what to expect on an up market day today. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:22 AM:  SPX prints a new all-time high at 1848.64. Expectation remains for SPX to roll over moving forward perhaps into the closing bell. If the day ends in an upside orgy, then selling is anticipated when trading resumes on Thursday. Watch the hourly charts to make sure the negative divergence remains; that is all that matters. GTX is 4833 coming very near the bull-bear line at 4820. If GTX closes today under 4820, this would be a go signal for bears. GTX above 4820 hints at the bulls maintaining market elevation. Watch the 8/34 MA cross on the SPX 30-minute chart. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The 8 actually stabbed down through the 34 MA yesterday but it was a safe bet it would reverse and move back above, which it did, since the 2-hour chart wanted the SPX to come up for another price high. The bulls are in the market, the bears have given up. Some of the upside joy today is probably based on the expectation for a big upward spike to begin 2014 on Thursday morning. Everyone is bulled up for the new year. VIX is positive at 13.68. Bears need to push the VIX above 14 to get their mojo back.

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