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Saturday, November 23, 2013

HLF Herbalife Weekly Chart C&H Inverted H&S Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Price Extended Ackman Short Fave

HLF has provided lots of drama this year. The hedge fund managers Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman have an ongoing battle playing out in the public's eye over this stock.  Their rivalry started as a result of past business deals gone sour ending in lawsuits. Icahn is on the long side of HLF and Ackman short. Earlier in the year, Ackman appeared in good shape, but Keystone had identified the cup and handle (C&H) pattern, warning of trouble for Ackman and joy for Icahn, which played out. The C&H breaks out at 50 and targets the 73-75 area, achieved. A few closing prints in this zone would be prudent to properly top things off but the bullish C&H pattern is now satisfied. The pink lines also show an inverted H&S with the same targets as the C&H, also now satisfied.

After a year of getting squeezed hard, Ackman should have his day in the sun again moving forward. It is never enjoyable to have shorts go against you; it becomes a matter of pain tolerance (risk tolerance). The red rising wedge and negative divergence across all indicators says a roll over move to the downside is coming. The purple dots show the price extensions above the moving averages which always requires a mean reversion (lower prices). Price may play around to keep the rising wedge vibe going, but HLF is a short play here on out, 71-77 should serve as the top, and by spring time, Ackman will likely be smiling broadly with price in the 60's or lower. Icahn has a room full of smart chart technicians so he surely sees the same technical behavior and is likely slowly sneaking out the back door. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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