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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Signals Significant Market Top

The beat goes on. It is going on 5 weeks since the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios printed uber low readings verifying the uber complacency in markets. The low VIX also bolsters this case. Traders are 100% convinced that QE tapering will not occur until March and the stock market will continue higher until then. Some analysts are now touting SPX 1900 and higher price targets. As always happens, when the hubris and lack of fear reaches these levels, where there is a complete belief that nothing bad will happen, is exactly when something bad happens. The long side, in general, is not worth playing until the CPC moves above 1.20. Now is the time to trim positions and only hold longs that you would be willing to hold for a few years time.

Note how the chart is basically under one for months now, rampant complacency and lack of fear. The markets received a cheesy one-day bottom signal in October which marked the SPX 1650 bottom. Markets are not allowed to properly correct and operate due to the central banker intervention. The Yellen rally pushes markets higher recently and the BOJ chimes in, beating the yen with a baseball bat, so Japan and U.S. markets enjoy some further easy money upside. The CPC says, however, you do not want to be long moving forward. Instead, spend time studying companies and preparing your long shopping list. Then you will be ready to pull the trigger when there is blood in the streets and folks are jumping out of windows when the CPC climbs above 1.20. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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