Today is Jobs Report Tuesday at 8:30 AM EST instead of a Friday due to the political clown show delay. The consensus is 180K jobs and a 7.3% unchanged unemployment rate. Last month added 169K. These jobs numbers are sickening, unable to even keep up with the new entries into the work force each month for several years now fueling the ongoing structural unemployment problem. Tragically, the American youth are idle with 6 million 16 to 24 year olds either not working or not going to school. What a different world it is considering that Keystone started working at 12 years old. As Bob Dylan says, the 'times are a changin'. As the U.S. changes course and adopts European socialism (no offense to all our friends across the pond), the U.S. then, to no surprise, looks more and more like Europe each day. The Jobs Report will likely not make a lot of difference. Traders are fully convinced that the Fed will remain accomodative with QE Infinity well into March 2014. This is why the uber bullish euphoria is in place for equities currently--no one sees any possibility of market downside for the next one-half year. Isn't that something? You know what happens when the boat is fully loaded to one side.
President Obama offers nothing new concerning the Obamacare debacle in his speech yesterday. He will not provide details on what is actually wrong or the number of folks that actually signed up. He says no one is more angry about the debacle then him but tell that to a person in poor health desperately trying to sign up and seek help. The president spent one-half billion dollars on web sites that do not work and now he tells everyone to use the telephone to call 1-800-318-2596 to sign up. Folks offer anecdotal stories of now being told that the necessary personal information cannot be communicated through the phone lines and another person was told to go to the website, which comically is the reason that folks are now having to call the telephone number. What a mess. The poor and disadvantaged should be helped at the State and local levels since the needs are far better understood at the community level, just as the Founding Fathers realized two centuries ago. The money can be used far more effectively locally focusing on individual needs rather than lining the politician's pockets and paying for their Washington booze parties.
AAPL releases the new iPad today. Richmond Fed Mfg Index is 10 AM. Notable earnings releases include AKS, AMGN, COH, DAL, DD, EMC, FCX, ITW, JNPR, KMB, LMT, NBR, PNRA, UTX and WHR. The semiconductor, retail and financial sectors continue to support the equity markets so watch these for any hint of weakness. ARMH, the chip darling, reports good news in Europe this morning but the stock is soft. Yesterday the VIX was up and the SPX was up so one of them was wrong. The battle continued and the day ended flat absorbing the recent upside energy. The SPX daily chart prints a doji candlestick that hints at a trend change. A follow through to the downside would be needed today to confirm the trend change. The coming days will be interesting considering the uber bullish euphoria in the markets currently as evidenced by the low CPC and CPCE put/calls.
Keybot the Quant is long but is now in position to flip short. If the SPX drops under 1741 and stays under, Keybot will likely flip short. UTIL is under 498 and GTX is under 4888 creating bear fuel and a cap in the market upside. Watch copper, JJC 40.19. If this fails, the algo will likely flip short. Bulls need to keep copper elevated and to push utilities and commodities higher to continue the upside party. For the SPX today starting at new all-time highs at 1745, the bulls need to touch the 1748 handle and it will be a big upside party. The bears need to push under 1741 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1742-1747 is sideways action. Price may see a lot of action today at the 1740-1741 level as markets wrestle with their fate. S&P futures are flat to slightly negative about 3 hours before the opening bell. Copper is flat. SPX support levels are 1745, 1733, 1730, 1726, 1722, 1710, 1706, 1697-1698, 1691-1692 and 1685.
Note Added 8:43 AM: The Jobs Report is a low 148K jobs and 7.2% unemployment rate. Folks continue to give up looking for work, hence the rate drops a tick lower, so, instead of a good sign, the lower rate simply masks the underlying trouble (if you are not actively looking for work you are not counted so this helps move the rate lower; once the economy picks up, if it ever does, folks will flood back into the job market and you will actually see the rate pop higher, but this would be good news since the folks will get reabsorbed, the economy is doing better, and in time the rate will reverse and then head lower for the correct reasons). The 148K jobs is a big miss from the 180K consensus but, in these sick, Fed-manipulated markets, bad news is great news, and the S&P futures pop a few handles to +6. The sick numbers means that QE Infinity will continue forever and forget March, maybe QE will continue all the way through 2014? (said jokingly) Party on, Garth. The labor participation rate is flat at multi-year low levels verifying the sick structural unemployment underlying the U.S. economy. The 10-year yield drops to 2.55% so this will bounce interest-rate sensitive stocks such as utilities. Watch UTIL 498.
Note Added 10:13 AM: GTX jumps above 4890 and UTIL above 498. Say no more. The bulls are running. The SPX touches 1748 so it catapults to a HOD at 1756.56 thus far. More new all-time highs. Markets are melting up with the Dow up over 100 points today. Construction Spending data is better than expected so good news is good news and bad news is good news. Bears got nothing unless they can move GTX under 4890 and/or UTIL under 498. VIX drops under 13. Keystone took small profits on NUGT exiting this long trade; it was a wild ride down, then back up. Also bot SSG, the 2x inverse ETF, opening a new position shorting the semiconductors.
I know 2 self employed republicans that call them selves conservatives. Each are spending $1200+ a month on health insurance and have been for years. Both hate Obama and also hated Obamacare until this past weekend when both signed up for the exchanges and are now paying under $500 a month for Anthem Blue Cross coverage. Both had to muddle thru the website and it's problems yet both got thru and are now saving $6000+ a year.
ReplyDeleteBoth are looking at Obama in a much better light today. There are no death panels, no restrictions on the Dr's they see, waiting for procedures, ect,ect.
Millions in the south are going to enroll in Obamacare and love it. This was a brilliant move by the democrats and the republicans are terrified of it for good reason.
Everyone hopes for a good outcome. Anecdotal evidence can always prove either side of an argument, just as Keystone's comments above paint a more negative picture. The current information available (since the Whitehouse will not provide details), however, hints at trouble with the program. Everyone can simply hope it all works out and does minimal damage.
DeleteYou are biased my friend. I'm self employed also and my coverage will go up $420 a month with fewer benefits. My taxes also go up 3% to help fund the program. Yeah, brilliant.
ReplyDeleteThe sad part of the program, at least on the current information which is all sketchy and the Whitehouse will not clarify anything, is how the Bronze plan provides the cheapest alternative, but it has a very high deducible. So, the guy that does not have health insurance, is now forced to buy it, say at 200, 300 or more per month, so he takes a hit of 2K or 3K per year, but if he breaks his arm, say it costs a couple K, that will not meet the deductible so on top of it all he ends up paying out of pocket to fix his arm anyways. This type of scenario, if it is actually this way, will doom the program since it is far better to just pay the penalty and ignore the program. If you get hurt, simply go to the emergency room and pay out of pocket like now. This scenario may also hint that the true intent of the program is to actually help prevent the high costs incurred for a catastrophic illness or accident. Say something costs 200K to fix, like cancer, well, then you would want to have insurance since you will go bankrupt. But, many folks do not have much to begin with, so, why worry. Keystone says simply enjoy life and play music each day, you never know when the guy in the black robe and sickle will show up.
DeleteI have a minority view on Health Care. My opinion is that the modern doctor is a civilized drug dealer, working as salesmen for Big Pharma. They'll write a script for just about anything, oblivious to the fact that the drug they're describing is doing more harm than good and not really treating anything. Except for what I consider catastrophic illnesses/injury, I avoid doctors like the plague that they are. If I break a bone, I expect them to set it; that's about it. My approach to health is one of wellness; eat write, exercise and most of our minor aches and pains will take care of themselves. I prefer a holistic/natural approach as to pumping fill of some chemical with disastrous side effects. If a doctor wrote me a script, I wouldn't take it. Yet I'm required now to take on a health care plan that is far in the excess of what I'd actually use.
DeleteAnon, that is well said and makes a lot of sense. The reason the Doc's write all the scripts is to get you into the big healthcare machinery wheel spinning round and round. If they write a script then you have to keep returning each 4 or 6 weeks for an office visit, for him to spend 5 minutes with you and give you more scripts; it's an easy 3 hundo to make in 5 minutes time. It is a money machine and how they make profits. If you avoid all scripts, you can stay out of this never-ending wheel in the sky, as Journey would say.
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ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, actual employment as a pct of the population is down 10% over the last 10 years.
ReplyDeleteI could see a gap fill at 1692ish by Nov. 3, then turning upwards on a Bradley turn...
The 1691-1692 level is key support. The middle band on the SPX daily chart is 1698 at the important 1697-1698 level. The upper band was violated so a move to the middle is needed. Middle band is rising so price and the middle band may meet at the 1706 support.
DeleteIf your premium is higher in the exchange then keep the insurance you have and save 400 dollars. My 2 friends are die hard republicans and could not be happier with this new option. He was paying $1200 a year with a 5000 deductable now he will be paying under 500 with Anthem Blue cross with just co pays and a minimal decuctable.
ReplyDeleteI find it hard to believe you will be paying more in premiums.
Millions in the south are going to benefit from Obama care I pity the republicans that try to get rid of obamacare. This is checkmate for the democrats I bet the republican party will continue to die but at a faster pace now.
It is sad when you focus on personally attacking a party rather than focusing on the policies and the underlying problems here in America. This is obviously all a big game to you to conquer the mountain and capture the flag... and the end goal is all about absolute power and not a balanced government right? I would go so far to presume that you would love the US to end up just like Europe.... Yipeee for us....
DeleteI would prefer China as a model for the US to follow. Their economy is crushing us and is growing at rates we will never see again. Gov't in partnership with business is the way to go.Our adversarial system is outdated and as we are seeing it is self destructive. Europeans don't have it so bad my friend. Having lived in Rome and Paris I can tell you it's pretty sweet.
DeleteNope you do not want to follow China, weeks or months from now you will likely understand why. It may get quite ugly over there as the housing bubble pops. All nations have their own cultures and everyone gets used to what home is. Europe is more easy going and take it as it comes. The U.S. is more go-go goal oriented. There are different DNA's but both are okay. As Keystone says, when in Rome, do like the Roman's, sans Caligula.
DeleteYou have 2 friends? And they are Republicans? Must be RINOS.
ReplyDeleteFrom a statistical point of view, that's what we call a valid sample size, lol. I'm sure they will run with that on CNN. "Two Republicans Now Say They Like the ACA... Therefore all Republicans like the ACA." I'm not a Republican and while I think Health Care reform is necessary, I think the ACA goes way too far. It deprives me of choice, by REQUIRING me to attain a level of coverage that is well above my needs. In effect, I'm paying for everyone else's health care.
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