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Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Keystone's Midday Market Action 10/22/13
The bulls run higher to a new all-time high at 1759.33 but are falling on their sword. SPX is now printing 1751. Watch UTIL 498 and GTX 4890. GTX drops under 4890 which creates the market weakness after the initial euphoria today but UTIL is now above 500 which is very constructive for stocks moving forward. UTIL must stay above 500 starting next week for the whole month after that, otherwise, the broad indexes will have a downward bias. The Nasdaq has slipped negative. The 10-year yield is 2.53% providing upside fuel for the utilities. VIX recovers strongly to 13.71 but remaining well below the 14.80 the bears need. VIX is up and SPX is up so one of them is wrong--watch today to see which. AAPL's announcements occur within the next 2 hours. AAPL is down to 519 after dropping to a LOD at 511.40. NFLX pukes -4% after it bounced +11% last evening on the stellar earnings. Perhaps traders are finally becoming concerned with price values in stocks. TRIN is 1.46 on the bear side today.
Google does not itself indicate the health of the tech sector. I will continue to preach caution. This quarter and next is going to bring a surprise to wall that are not paying attention. It is been now as it was in 2008. The numbers can be hidden for a few quarters perhaps but in the end it's going to be ugly. Ask yourself this, who is driving the demand?
ReplyDeleteYou've been railing against the tech sector for a while now, but I haven't heard much beyond gut feeling. Upon what are you basing this implosion? The answer to your question "who is driving this demand?" is two-fold: 1) young people and 2) China. Younger people are still spending money on their precious tech junk, because they're not buying houses. Plus, the reach of company's like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, etc is getting larger, not smaller (you're using Google right now). A friend of mine from U.K. was telling me just this morning about what he's watching on Netflix. Add on top of that the China is just beginning to witness its Middle Class revolution, the scope of new users and consumers is phenomenal. While tech is always cyclical--and I do expect a pullback--I hardly see where you're coming from.
DeleteMark
ST Micro dumps -7% overnight on weaker Asia demand for chips. APPL's suppliers for the iPad parts are all down overnight one of them -6%.
Deletethe trend is what it is
ReplyDeletetime price relationships work out even if humans sacrifice each other in cultural rituals in homage to their evolutionary brain damage...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57874934775&a=312380641
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=19&id=p30740402281&a=317567577&listNum=6
there is no major top indicated until mid Dec although there is an intermediate one in mid Nov
Excuse my French,
ReplyDeleteBut where the f**k does this market want to go to the upside????
The upper BB on daily SPX is at 1753.91, the upper BB on weekly is at 1758.30 at the MONTHLY (!!!!!!!!) upper BB is at 1757.70.
Those upper BB on weekly can rise at 5-7 points / week and the monthly can rise at a 7-9 points / month. A close above the upper BB on monthly is signaling a very important long-term top in markets.
In the area also 1752-1765 there is the multi-annual R limit of the 2009 channel ....
Exactly where the f**k does this crazy market want to go ????
KS, That's why VIX and SPX today rise both.
The irrationals kick against the roof of this market! That's why.
We are in the area of the Big Top now. (+/- 25-50 points).
V.
:)
DeleteIt's somewhat funny (those written by me) cause now I'm 100% long :).
But I observed that the Bots (more than 80% of the market) search the net and position themselves against the general public sentiment (considering also the intensity of language).
So :) ....
sorry KS for cursing here.
V.
screaming at the sky isnt going to stop the tribal flows under the golden moon before the end of time! lol
Deleteas I said below this is real world stuff and you have to get out of the narrative in your head to see it...
your story about life stops you from having insight.
The robots follow the momo, so this goes for the upside and the downside, through yesterday the upside receives the nod. weekly, monthly and daily upper bands all violated. next month and finish to the year will be interesting, no one expects any major downside. Watch utilities closely. If UTIL stays above 500, then the pull back will be tame, perhaps like Septembers, however, if you see UTIL drop under 500, 498, then 490 going forward as the market sells off, the downside may have serious legs at least down to 1600-ish. Can only take it day to day.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=20&mn=5&dy=0&id=p34151520590&listNum=6&a=308262414
ReplyDeleteminimum 1850 and probably a bubble pop 8-10% higher than the target...
this is real world stuff
If UTIL stays above 500 over the next month and the sideways triangle breakout to the upside continues, you may be on to something Scott.
DeleteI have a question, how come we joke about the shoe shine kid and cab driver buying equities with both hands, but volume has been really low for several months now. The participation is low, and all participants are long, but it would be incorrect to imply that all of the masses are long equities, wouldn't it? Isn't a bubble defined as a time when almost everyone believe in a singular upside outcome and puts capital to work in that specific area? I'm just curious and I've always learned a lot from this blog.
ReplyDeleteFeS2
I said the bubble is yet to come...it aint here yet
Deletethere will be a small pullback between the 27th and the end of the month and then an advance until Nov 13th (?)....the pullback then will scare a number of people but they will panic on the buy side when the world doesnt end.
DeleteI guess the small pullback could start Friday
DeleteNot so much volume Ironman, it is the sentiment that is key. When you have folks that do not know much about markets but they are walking around with their chests puffed out telling everyone to buy stocks, take notice to that. Or if you work in an office environment if there are one or two guys walking around telling everyone to go long. There is a structural employment problem in the U.S. now so base circumstances are different than the go-go 90's top in 2000 and the real estate bubble top in 2005-2007. Families iwth 2 wage earners are fat, dumb and happy now making out like bandits in recent years with their stock accounts going higher and they are fully employed so the giddiness is probably in these circles, but for many others, they are screwed in life by the bank bailouts and many will never recover, so they will never tout the markets in a positive note ever again.
DeleteSaut has the same Mid Dec caution point...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/multimedia2.htm?url=Saut_Daily.wma&player=wmp&target=int&width=300&height=0
Saut has been very sharp with markets the last couple years.
Deletedow is about to breakout and maybe end it divergence
ReplyDeleteanyone who keeps shorting and getting frustrated should consider watching dow to see if the pullback holds the breakout - if so, I'd leverage long through mid Nov. I'm going to reallocate on Thursday probably and wait and see how the end of Oct looks
blast off! roflmao
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p47734176057&a=318924302
ReplyDeletedow much less stellar than expected! lol
ReplyDeletebut still on track through friday??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p39652927152&a=319046691
Be careful with markets, the low CPC and CPCE put/calls must be respected, market top likely over coming days this week or next, once the selling begins we can see what the story is using UTIL as one of the guides on the way down. NYMO indicating top as well.
ReplyDelete