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Friday, August 2, 2013

SPX Weekly Chart Upward-Sloping Channel Rising Wedges Overbot Negative Divergence Price Extension

The weekly chart shows the red upward-sloping two-year channel in play with price liking the top half of the channel for all of this year. The maroon lines show rising wedge behavior for price over the last few months. The indicators are overbot and negatively diverged. As price continues to make new all-time highs, the indicators are less enthusiastic. The negative divergence spank down in May occurred with the RSI hinting that it may want to see another high in price again. With the help of the Fed and BOJ easy money, price creates the June bottom and comes up to print that higher high. The central banker pumping over the last month, in both actions and lip service, creates the near-term (last couple weeks) momo shown by the short green lines for MACD line and RSI. Therefore, the bulls may be able to squeeze out a week or two more of bullish fun but the chart is very over extended.

The red dots show price above the 20 MA above the 50 above the 200 verifying the over extension and a need for price to revert to the mean (drop down to test the MA support levels). The 50-week MA has only been tested twice in the last 1 1/2 years and not since 9 months ago. The 200-week MA has not been tested for two years. If price is topping, this is an ideal time with the SPX at the top rail of the channel and negative divergence in place. Projection is for a roll over to occur at any time and for the SPX to move sideways to sideways lower for the weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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