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Wednesday, August 7, 2013
SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns
Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today after the long 6-week uptrend. Note the sideways range at 1610-1675 so pay attention to these levels as time ticks by. The sideways churn in June wreaks havoc on algo's but Keybot is navigating well. The sideways choppiness is created by the higher volatility.The chart shows the algo turns for 2013 thus far. Pay attention to JJC 39.00 (causing bullishness), GTX 4795 (causing bearishness) and SOX 473.36 (causing bullishness) to determine market direction forward. The bears are driving the bus as the Thursday session begins. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The price in futures (and spx cash equivalent) is right now at an important point: 1699 eq. cash (futures 1694.65).
It is a very tricky point here. Here we have the 0.618 retracement of the move from the highs down to 1685. So: 2 scenarios for today: 1: this is wave 'b' in a starting structure of major 4 2: this is wave 1 of minor 5 of major 3 if all we have seen until now was just minor 4 of major 3 (peak of minor 4's 'b' being 1709).
considering the technicals and the DOW correspondent count I believe this is scenario 1 here (the one with major 4 started already). But: BE VERY NIMBLE! a 'b' wave of 'A' of major 4 can rise at different fibonacci levels (0.618, 0.786, and so on...). So: if you are getting in shorts set stop loss (mental, not in the market) at 1-2 points above the all times high! The thing that will make the diference between scenario 1 and 2 is that damn maximum! (up to there there are a lot of fibo retracements levels, of course respecting also the assumed peak of minute 1 of 'a' of major4). I repeat: according to DOW count there's no place for major 3 anymore.
BUT! But this market can do whatever she wants to do.... I will not use my money on longs if this is the case for scenario 2 (still in major 3, last wave = so above the all time high). Too much risk! If overnight happens something in Asia or Europe I will be fully blown out! No! The risk is too big at this level ... if still major 3 let the idiots make the follow-thru with their money!
Nope, all is fine. Lots going on these days, it is difficult to keep up. Note that GTX stays bearish and SOX may be failing at 473.36. That is a major bear win for the path forward if SOX would drop under and stay under 473.36.
Hi guys,
ReplyDeleteThe price in futures (and spx cash equivalent) is right now at an important point: 1699 eq. cash (futures 1694.65).
It is a very tricky point here.
Here we have the 0.618 retracement of the move from the highs down to 1685.
So:
2 scenarios for today:
1: this is wave 'b' in a starting structure of major 4
2: this is wave 1 of minor 5 of major 3 if all we have seen until now was just minor 4 of major 3 (peak of minor 4's 'b' being 1709).
considering the technicals and the DOW correspondent count I believe this is scenario 1 here (the one with major 4 started already).
But: BE VERY NIMBLE!
a 'b' wave of 'A' of major 4 can rise at different fibonacci levels (0.618, 0.786, and so on...).
So: if you are getting in shorts set stop loss (mental, not in the market) at 1-2 points above the all times high!
The thing that will make the diference between scenario 1 and 2 is that damn maximum! (up to there there are a lot of fibo retracements levels, of course respecting also the assumed peak of minute 1 of 'a' of major4).
I repeat: according to DOW count there's no place for major 3 anymore.
BUT! But this market can do whatever she wants to do.... I will not use my money on longs if this is the case for scenario 2 (still in major 3, last wave = so above the all time high). Too much risk! If overnight happens something in Asia or Europe I will be fully blown out! No! The risk is too big at this level ... if still major 3 let the idiots make the follow-thru with their money!
GS guy
Copper is flying higher overnight and that creates a lot of bullishness in the markets.
DeleteI know KS , but at those lofty levels I call that not bullishness, but 'bulls***ness" :)
DeleteAll people here have to watch the 1709 level in cash!
There is at 1709 the upper BB and now as V stated the daily BB are contracting hard, so a very big move is coming!
I really doubt it's a move that will carry us to dope-levels like 1800-1900-2000 and so on...
GS guy
KS , Are you anfry on me?
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry for my bad language.
I just thought it was funny the words association :).
Sorry!
GS guy
edit: 'angry'
DeleteGS guy
Nope, all is fine. Lots going on these days, it is difficult to keep up. Note that GTX stays bearish and SOX may be failing at 473.36. That is a major bear win for the path forward if SOX would drop under and stay under 473.36.
DeleteWelcome back to the price is right, Paul Faulkner.
ReplyDeleteFeS2