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Sunday, August 11, 2013
SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross H&S Patterns
The 8 MA crossed down through the 34 MA on Friday signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. The 8 and 34 MA's are moving flat sideways (pink box), however, and very near each other, so the bull-bear fight continues. As long as the 8 stays under the 34, the bears are fine going forward. If the 8 crosses back up through the 34 MA, that will be one of the first signs that the bears are folding like a cheap suit. The H&S vibe is easy to see in the chart. Looking at the brown lines, there are numerous touches giving the slanted brown H&S street cred. A head at 1710 and neck line at 1685 would create 25 points of downside from a 1688-ish neck line failure, thus, a target of about 1660-ish. The neon blue lines set the H&S pattern horizontally with two necklines. Think of the neck as a thick crayon line running across 1682-1685. Thus, the downside target is 1660 if 1685 fails, and 1654 if 1682 fails. Markets stumble through the sideways 1672-1710 range for the last month, or 1682-1710 if you prefer. The money flow is weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows for the SPX but the other indicators are in a sideways vibe. Stochastics and RSI are under 50% in bear territory, as well as the MACD under zero, so give the bears a small nod for that. Use the 8/34 cross as a guide forward. The bears are in the lead as the new week begins. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Look at the daily SPX chart from 20 Aug 12 until the first week in Sep 12. See any similarities to today's events? I still think we will resolve to the upside but I want to be in cash by 15 Sep. Take care, Rich
Japanese GDP grew at a miserly 0.6% QoQ, missing expectations of +0.9% (the biggest miss in a year) and slowing from an already revised lower 0.9% growth in Q1.
Took this from zerohedge. Doesn't look good. That tax hike is going to be tough in a consumer driven slowing economie.
If 1676 in cash is not taken to the downside at the opening, CLOSE short options that expire in August and if you hold shorts that expire in Sept/Oct IF 1676 is not taken and a ramp appears either exit shorts or hedge them (1:1 ratio) with longs.
Here technically there is one risk : the risk of minor 4 not being closed and we might see a possible minor 5 this week (being also OPEX for August).
If 1676 is not taken to the downside and held after that to 1660-1650 levels (or lower), at 1675 (counting from 1709) we have 3 waves :A-B-C (maybe part of a minor 4 structure or part of an alternative structure).
Watch that level : 1676 , and generally speaking, the whole area 1676-1680 in cash.
According to futures in SPX 500 we will open with a gap down.
If Scott last week was right (the view presented in this message is similar somewhat to his view) 1676 will be the maximum downside that bears achieve.
This message is adressed to day traders as well as to medium to long term traders.
It's all about 1676 level. 1685 level if lost affirms major 4, but only below 1676 there's the confirmation level for major 4. KS's targets are correct if 1676 is lost(if 1685 taken we will go to 1660 's / if 1682 is taken we will go to 1654).
Take care, we sail now in muddy waters, The bulls might just prepare an ambush and a bear trap,
The first 1-2,maximum 3 hours. According to futures (at the moment of posting this message) we might have a 8-10 points gap down. Use this gap as you consider and keep in sight 1676 level and 1676-1680 area.
Now it should have started 3'rd wave down of 'a' of major 4.
I rarely saw 3'rd wave to start in futures with a big gap down and that gap to not be closed in cash during US markets hours before 3'rd wave continue (if this happens).
What else changed? Japan published it's GDP - it has impact on usd/jpy and spx 500 indirectly.
In determining the waves I'm following futures and cash markets to determine the situation.
GS guy. Thank you for returning to this forum. I am certain that I can speak on behalf of many traders, that we certainly would have been diminished without your valued insights & contributions for the set-up of major wave 4.
absolutely - closed my short this morning. The IV on the full price options was very high comparable to last week, almost guaranteeing I had to close at the open.
one more thing to add: if 1692 is NOT taken we will visit today (in cash) 1676.
So watch carefully 1676, as well as 1692. 1676 will be the neckline for one big H&S under construction. Over 1692 = retest of the highs. 1692 not taken = visit of 1676 in cash TODAY.
KS, IAG announces earnings today, ~.09 expected, are you still bullish/long considering the recent gold price swings. I couldn't find any solid data on any hedging that IAG has done in the past quarter that may contribute to profitable earnings this quarter.
ok, seems like a dip to 1676 MIGHT BE possible today.
At that level, if 1676 is not broken, dump all shorts (if you still have any) and stay in cash... next topping period (and the final one) = 16 - 20 August 2013. if day trader and like hot plays you can take a small long position at 1676 (if it holds), but all day traders must be very nimble cause they are playing with fire at this levels. Cash is a good intelligent position until market is ready to roll over to the downside. Some TA indicators still want some upside after a short visit to 1676 (a very strong -div. might appear at that moment if after 1676 we go to 1700+ levels).
Look at the daily SPX chart from 20 Aug 12 until the first week in Sep 12. See any similarities to today's events? I still think we will resolve to the upside but I want to be in cash by 15 Sep. Take care, Rich
ReplyDeleteJapanese GDP grew at a miserly 0.6% QoQ, missing expectations of +0.9% (the biggest miss in a year) and slowing from an already revised lower 0.9% growth in Q1.
ReplyDeleteTook this from zerohedge. Doesn't look good. That tax hike is going to be tough in a consumer driven slowing economie.
one message for US stocks - Monday
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYycJ8O0Gq4
WARNING:
ReplyDeleteIf 1676 in cash is not taken to the downside at the opening, CLOSE short options that expire in August
and if you hold shorts that expire in Sept/Oct IF 1676 is not taken and a ramp appears either exit shorts or hedge them (1:1 ratio) with longs.
Here technically there is one risk : the risk of minor 4 not being closed and we might see a possible minor 5 this week (being also OPEX for August).
If 1676 is not taken to the downside and held after that to 1660-1650 levels (or lower), at 1675 (counting from 1709) we have 3 waves :A-B-C (maybe part of a minor 4 structure or part of an alternative structure).
Watch that level : 1676 , and generally speaking, the whole area 1676-1680 in cash.
According to futures in SPX 500 we will open with a gap down.
If Scott last week was right (the view presented in this message is similar somewhat to his view) 1676 will be the maximum downside that bears achieve.
This message is adressed to day traders as well as to medium to long term traders.
It's all about 1676 level.
1685 level if lost affirms major 4, but only below 1676 there's the confirmation level for major 4.
KS's targets are correct if 1676 is lost(if 1685 taken we will go to 1660 's / if 1682 is taken we will go to 1654).
Take care, we sail now in muddy waters,
The bulls might just prepare an ambush and a bear trap,
GS guy
GS, Re "at the opening" do you mean 5-10 minutes after opening bell or what? Thank you for this early morning post!Rich
DeleteThe first 1-2,maximum 3 hours.
DeleteAccording to futures (at the moment of posting this message) we might have a 8-10 points gap down.
Use this gap as you consider and keep in sight 1676 level and 1676-1680 area.
GS guy
What changed since Friday?
ReplyDeleteEW does not change over the weekend.
Puzzled!
Billy Shears,
Deletea lot have changed in futures.
Now it should have started 3'rd wave down of 'a' of major 4.
I rarely saw 3'rd wave to start in futures with a big gap down and that gap to not be closed in cash during US markets hours before 3'rd wave continue (if this happens).
What else changed?
Japan published it's GDP - it has impact on usd/jpy and spx 500 indirectly.
In determining the waves I'm following futures and cash markets to determine the situation.
GS guy
damn... its going up once again.. bear trap?
DeleteGS guy. Thank you for returning to this forum. I am certain that I can speak on behalf of many traders, that we certainly would have been diminished without your valued insights & contributions for the set-up of major wave 4.
ReplyDelete+1
Deleteabsolutely - closed my short this morning. The IV on the full price options was very high comparable to last week, almost guaranteeing I had to close at the open.
ReplyDeleteIf still holding shorts I really hope you hedged with longs when I've said so.
ReplyDeleteAttention: is 1692 is taken, we just might revisit the highs SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION HOW YOU'RE DEALING WITH SHORT STOPS OK ?
Sometimes it's good to have friends that call you and tell you things shared with you here.
GS guy
also: use only Sept/Oct short options, not August!
DeleteGS guy
one more thing to add:
Deleteif 1692 is NOT taken we will visit today (in cash) 1676.
So watch carefully 1676, as well as 1692.
1676 will be the neckline for one big H&S under construction.
Over 1692 = retest of the highs.
1692 not taken = visit of 1676 in cash TODAY.
GS guy
KS, IAG announces earnings today, ~.09 expected, are you still bullish/long considering the recent gold price swings. I couldn't find any solid data on any hedging that IAG has done in the past quarter that may contribute to profitable earnings this quarter.
ReplyDeleteYep, the gold miners, coal, coffee, shippers, are the few areas that are attractive for possible LTBH's. Everything else in the market is suspect.
Deleteok, seems like a dip to 1676 MIGHT BE possible today.
ReplyDeleteAt that level, if 1676 is not broken, dump all shorts (if you still have any) and stay in cash... next topping period (and the final one) = 16 - 20 August 2013.
if day trader and like hot plays you can take a small long position at 1676 (if it holds), but all day traders must be very nimble cause they are playing with fire at this levels.
Cash is a good intelligent position until market is ready to roll over to the downside. Some TA indicators still want some upside after a short visit to 1676 (a very strong -div. might appear at that moment if after 1676 we go to 1700+ levels).
GS guy