China trade data has the bulls running today with copper leading higher. Copper, commodities and semiconductors are the key market movers currently. Watch JJC 39.00 (now above causing bullishness and copper is headed even higher), GTX 4795 (now below causing market negativity) and SOX 473.36 (now above causing market bullishness). The bears need to drag copper and semi's lower while the bulls need to send commodities higher. Keybot the Quant is short and today will determine if a whipsaw back to the long side occurs, or not. A push above SPX 1695 may place the bulls back in the drivers seat. For the SPX starting at 1691, the bulls need 1695 and higher to create an upside acceleration. The futures point to this occurring in the opening minutes so watch to see if the higher numbers hold, or not. The bears need to push under 1685 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1686-1694 is sideways action today. The 8 MA is below the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets ahead, however, the 8 MA is sloping upwards and the bulls are going to try and create a positive 8/34 cross today to regain market control. The SPX held the 20-day MA support at 1690.05 yesterday.
Note Added 10:08 AM: Interesting day. GTX stays bearish. SOX failure occurs. Watch to see if SOX stays under 473.36 for the next several minutes, if so, the SPX should sell off into the 1680's.
Note Added 11:00 AM: SPX 1690.72. The 20-day MA is 1690.84. This is the fight. Bounce or die.
Note Added 11:23 AM: GTX remains bearish. SOX just crossed back above 473.36 but see if it holds over the coming minutes, or not. If SOX collapses under 473.36 again that should drive markets strongly lower. A SOX bounce and markets float along with a slight upward bias. SPX continues to decide at the 20-day MA. Bounce or die.
KS, can you sneak a peak at the BBs on the SPX daily chart please? Any idea when the big move might come? What clues will you watch to gauge the direction?
ReplyDeleteThat sure is something, the big move is now due to the tight bands. Today and tomorrow are big days. When the smoke clears today, a chart will be posted for the SPX daily.
DeleteIf interested my update is at ''SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns'' KS's article.
ReplyDeleteGS guy
SOX collapsing now under 473.
ReplyDeleteI want to see where are the bulls now?
ReplyDeleteShow me the beef! Where's the beef ?!? Ahahhahahaaaaaa :)))))))))))))))
I want to see where the bulls are ... I have some hundreds of millions of bucks specially prepared! And fully leveraged! And can get some more if I want to!
disclosure: 15% short 1:10.000 ratio / 75% cash
GS guy
Actually I'd like some upside here .... I'm only 15% short and I'd like some better prices, you know? .... ;) ...and I have the money to not care about that 1709 stop ..considering the technicals and the usual August activity the bulls can't get too far ....
Delete:)
GS guy
you have hundreds of millions, 15% short, leveraged 10x (i'm assuming with options) with a stop loss at 1709 that you don't care if you get hit.
Deleteummm......ok....
GS, if you're playing this game with hundreds of millions dollars ---and I don't think you are--- you're a jackass and I don't mind saying it. Of course my suspicion is that is in fact the case. Because someone who really worked for GS and had hundreds of millions of dollars wouldn't need to come on this blog. Truly wealthy people do not need to play the high-risk game and they seldom do. With a hundred million, you can afford to hang out in conservative investments. Why risk it all in this bat-shit market that can and will turn on a dime?
Delete"Stocks Cautious as Investors Smell a Correction"
ReplyDeleteLook, when we see these kind of messages.....
price action is bullish NOT bearish at this point
Deleteperiod...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p88712489710&a=307800791&listNum=6
things can change of course but they havent...
I agree...:)
DeleteSOX is 472.34, if it stays under 473.36 the bears will march equities lower today, but if it recovers, then the broad indexes will recover.
ReplyDeleteThe next few minutes are important since the SPX is fighting for the critical 20-day MA support at 1690.80, so it will either bounce, or die.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p29254835271&a=303389662&listNum=4
ReplyDeletethis is almost a mechanical system
use it with the chart I posted yesterday
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=13&id=p36296839577&a=298220672&listNum=4
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL:$NATOT&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p77027596024&listNum=4&a=303358015
ReplyDeleteKS looks like your H&S is playing out. Small gap left yesterday on the SPX has been filled. Copper to the moon and this is all the SPX can manage? Ditto JPY/USD--DXY getting smashed and this is all the SPX can manage in the way of a rally? This is bearish.
ReplyDeleteCertainly!
DeleteOf course it's bearish!
A few weeks ago spx 500 with this kind of conditions would have marked a +2,5-3 % at least!
The H&S is in play with the right shoulder under construction.
GS guy it's a funny guy!
Look what I found!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6_eWWfNB54
V.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p96384517758&a=301653093&listNum=4
Deletepretty sure this is a consolidation move higher
moment of retest truth! lol
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=17&id=p21231182926&a=303364745&listNum=4
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$MID&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p44348230132&a=279010633
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/08/guggenheims-minerd-says-this-is-no-entry-point-for-u-s-stocks/
ReplyDeletejust a thought ...
V.
enter is different than HOLD...a top is coming just not today
DeleteHm :)
ReplyDeleteBulls now are trying to mimic the start of a wave 3 and sneak to the upside.
Ok, go ahead.
You'll make my job easier (and cheaper) - this is (if you'll make it) your last chance before some good major wave sell-off.
Come to papa!
I'm waiting for you! Have cookies :)!
GS guy
gap from the last couple of days is filled if spx moves and holds above it 1720, then 1740 before the fall comes...hope short stops are set high enough and the whiskey is in the desk drawer until the cycles iron themselves out! lol
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p39506507974&a=307887490
Ok, Scott.
DeleteI'd love to see it being pushed up. As up as it can be.
That's discount for me, you know? ;)
I'm still 85% in cash, you know?
From 1709 to 1685 I see 5 impulsive waves down.
Looking at what happened from 1685 it looks to me as a .... 'b' wave-up with 3 waves move (up- down- up now) what do you think will happened after that?
;)
GS guy
Hi guys,
DeleteMy concern is that next week is OpX, market 95% of the time is bullish.
There are chances that we might shoot above 1709. What is you think?
Thanks!
Amy
Scott,
DeletePlease tell me.... related to those 3 waves from yesterday's low
1688.40 + 16.35 = ?
;) ?
GS guy
Believe me, Amy,
DeleteMarket ratios such as fibo levels are much, much, much more powerful than Opex week and other myths like the omnipotence of FED .... is a selling market FED would be = 0!
But their power (FED's) is in your heads! If a strong down wave starts after a very lofty level reached it will be very difficult for FED to stop, or deturnate it!
If a bear market starts (like the one that's preparing in a few months, maybe 1/2 of year) FED will be powerless!
It's about market cycles! Not about a bunch of no-names!
GS guy
p.s. Remember: FED's power is just in the heads of market traders ! If this illusion falls the people will see how does it looks when all FED members are holding a live conference and market sells with full %!
haven't been commenting lately much, but PAUL nails it on the head! One of the best comments in a long time.
DeleteI am seeing three options:
1) LD from 1676 to 1710 for wave i of 5, then ii down to 1685, and now in iii of 5
2) wave iv of 5 just completed with an irregular flat, where 1699-1676 was wave, a then to 1710 was b-wave high, and the move down to 1685 was a c-wave (clear 5-waves!) now in v of 5
3) major 3 is in at 1710, and we'll see mid 1500s for major 4 before we'll see mid 1700s for major 5.
I am short (SDS) since 1692 (half a position though). Break below 1685 and especially 1676 tells us we'll head much lower, break above 1710 will tell us it wants to hit 1750s first before correcting 10%. That means the upside reward is say 50 points and the downside risk is say 150 points... not liking those odds for a all-in long play...
GL!!!
Hello Arnie!
DeleteMissed you! Glad you come back! :)
Thanx for your ideas!
V.
Thanks, V. I am lurking in the background and was very happy to see that KB went short at about the same level as I did. I was simply AWOL, since the market was just chugging along, until last week and this week so there was really not much to add.... Now it's at a cross roads so it's interesting again.
DeleteFYI: please take a look at my own page: www.soulsurferusa.wordpress.com
Hi v, if we are in major 4, this bounce should not take out 1709 right?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/75188609@N07/9464600191/
ReplyDeletebear porn! lol
Bull Porn! lol
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p41245256678&a=298978580
No Anon,
ReplyDeleteI don't have any stop loss in the market (when do you think I started trading? yesterday?)...
1709 is a technical level.
If 1709 is taken , this might not be major 4 (yet)!
And considering that wave 5's tend to truncate ... you know the following :)
GS guy
That was for this smarty Anon:
Delete''AnonymousAugust 8, 2013 at 12:24 PM
you have hundreds of millions, 15% short, leveraged 10x (i'm assuming with options) with a stop loss at 1709 that you don't care if you get hit.
ummm......ok....''
not all my indicators point to lower prices – its just that the intermediate ones that are indicating tops are getting confounded by cycle shifts and uncharted territory. This is where momentum and price action are important
Deletethere is as I said A LOT of support being etched out here in uncharted territory. I would urge everyone to look at 2004 for clues here.
Bull porn turns into Bear porn before your eyes! lol
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p41245256678&a=298978580
remember that this uptrend, though seemingly relentless, has had a number of substantial pullbacks larger than 5% (some over 9%) and so in spite of distribution the substantially lower RELATIVE prices on those pullbacks have offered risk bait to keep the uptrend alive.
DeleteKS,
ReplyDeleteI would expect Keybot to flip back to the long side, especially with copper Ripping up at 40.24 and Vix sinking down to 12.47, far below the 14.25 major resistance level.
What would cause Keybot to flip to the long side?
thanks,
TW
Forget what Keybot is doing. Just keep buying dips. With POMO and Fed, it's free money.
DeleteThis is something already domatic!
DeleteI don't believe in domatic things that are beyond TA !
V.
typo, sorry...
Delete'dogmatic' not domatic :)
V.
Ok, too much non technical chatter here.
ReplyDeleteI'll go and dip a little in the market.
I'll promise I'll work soft, not like a cow-boy! :)
I'll come back here later or at the end of day!
GS guy
$sox weakening should bring mkts weaker into the close...
ReplyDeleteGS guys hundreds of millions are turning away the bulls - he'll be back once he's got them all in the corals! lol
ReplyDeleteDo appreciate that I used only 0.68% of my capital.
DeleteDo you want to see how does it looks like more 15% like in the morning?
Oh... hundreds of millions leveraged at a ratio of 1 x 10000 (ten thousands). And can use higher leverage levels but for now I'm used with this ratio.
Behave, dear gentleman!
GS guy
Pls short it all the way down to low 1400s.... That would be great.
Deleteoh the internet fantasies that do seem so real...
DeleteAnon,
DeleteI can't just short like a cow-boy here.
Do you know what would happen?
Bots would eat me alive.
A very gigantic spike down would appear (due to leverage included) - about 100-120 points minimum - and that spike down would be bought in minutes behind remaining a very big bullish signal.
It's all about entry points and market psychology.
I can't enter like a crazy guy ...it's like dancing with the market ... you have to know when to make the moves and when to kick it.
GS guy
Lmao,
DeleteWhat's really funny is the math.
$200mm x 10,000 = 12% US GDP
Or he's going the other way.
$200mm / 10,000 = 1990 dodge dart
Either way, I relish these Internet moments.
GS guy, which broker lets you margin up 10,000 to 1? You mean to tell me a $1000 account can have a $1 million short position? No way! That's hard to believe.
ReplyDeletehe is a dark pool wizard...! watch out
DeleteHave a preferential contract due to amount of capital.
DeleteMy broker is not your business.
And because there are a few people that bug me maybe at the end of the day something will happen in this market and won't be so great to bulls.
GS guy
I have the SEC phone number on speed dial! LOL
Deleteone should not inhale whip cream can gas in the afternoon!
Scott,
DeleteI don't know who you are , but here, on KS's site we like to maintain a certain degree of quality of relationships and type of communication.
Learn to behave please, today all day you harassed me. What's your problem?
Mind your own business!
GS guy
:)
Deleteyes I will believe everything I'm told and do as I'm told here on the internet...hmmm
Scott,
DeleteBe nice to GS, he is a nice and kind person.
Along with KS, GS is helping everyone on this site to make some money for Christmas..
Also don't forget to learn to give!
Amy - have you made money from his trade "advice"?
Deletethat last little post of his doesnt strike you as odd that he claims to be able to leverage his trades 1000/1!
Alex properly called him out on that BS.
SEC ring ring...lol
oops - I mean 10,000 to 1!!!!!!!!!
Deletewow typing factor
seriously now if Alex and I can see the truth...
Not yet, I've been underwater so I'm trying to make up some of my losses and hopefully this Major 4 will help a little.
DeleteA little more Amy , something like 10 to 12% down in 4-6 weeks.
DeleteGS guy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=120&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p70518018842&a=310132103&listNum=4
ReplyDeletethis may be superfluous now that GS guy has pulled the trigger. LOL
Guys,
ReplyDeleteStop fighting here?
Your think that here it's Daneric's site where everybody fights with everybody?
Cool it down please!
This is a HIGH-CLASS SITE!
V.
Whose fighting - SEC is on speed dial though. LOL
DeleteScott and all the other trolls,
DeleteI see you have a personal problem with me.
I said here that I don't give day trading advice!
We are now in a turning point and try to follow and comment in real time to help others.
Loading shorts as per my advice might be on a 20-40 points up considered from the lows (1685). Major 4 will unfold during 4-6 weeks.
So, what's your problem, Scott?
People here were informed about price target and duration, also were informed about risks concerning a major 3 still possible / even KB is short so I'm compliant with KeyBot / if others are folowing me, I loaded only 16% the rest is in cash - what's your problem????
It would be a crazy thing to load longs/stocks here, at this levels! Why are you trying to make retailers get in problems? Loading stoskc here and now? Oh my God!
This is the last message for you. Your behaviour is not acceptable.
GS guy
10000 to 1 no problem...lol
DeleteGS,
ReplyDeleteIt looks like I may be in the poor house with all the puts I bought.
Could you spare some of the 10% of your winnings ?
Would appreciate it. Thanks.
You are NOT poor considering you have internet access and a computer!
DeleteLast but not least, you got skill and knowledge!
The poor people are the one on the street...not to mention a space to shelter from weather condition, they got no food...that is called "poor", ok?
Barkme,
DeleteDid we finished major 4 already?
Do you agree with me that you have to load longs during bottoms and shorts during tops or at the end of a larger degree wave?
I am also underwater a little bit as per today's closing but it is something normal in the building process of a position.
We'll speak more in 4-6 weeks.
Hope you bought September or October puts, not August puts, due to August OPEX reasons.
Stay calm, it will be ok.
GS guy
V = GS
ReplyDeleteWell. thank you , I take that as a compliment.
DeleteI'd wish to be him.
Guess he's having an interesting life.
Thanx, I apreciate it! It means a lot to me if after 1 year of trading experiense I can be compared to him!
thank you!
V.
No V, you don't want to be me , having all this trolls on my head here whilst trying to do my project.
DeleteYou have a nice life and you're younger (you said you're 31,no? I'm 63) - those are real assets.
Enjoy life!
GS guy
Here is something everyone should know...
ReplyDeleteNever be jeolous of others who have more money than you. They may be more skillful, more knowledge, more experience and older than you.
Remember..."OLD IS GOLD"!
We all have 30% Luck plus 70% is how you make out of your life!
GL!
remember this
Delete10000 to 1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
roflmao
Scott, just quit it. This is a good site, don't ruin it for everyon
ReplyDeleteYes Scott...better to make another friend than another enemy! Hope you understand. We are all on the same boat!
Deletehttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ro/2013/08/hindenburg-omen-fires-off-3rd-volley-in.html
ReplyDelete''HO signals issued on August 5th, 6th and 8th, 2013.''
and short calls from KS, GS guy and others.
Nothing's gonna happen!
Sleep tight! :)
I have a dream! LOL! :) ;)
Martin Luther KING
KS, Could You please delete all Scott's responses. He is here to stir the pot.
ReplyDeleteI don't think KS should delete Scott's comments. That would be a tresspass of one fundamental human right: freedom of speech.
DeleteEach person here will self-eliminate - I wonder what Scott's face would be when Major 4 will be confirmed , maybe as soon as Friday or maybe Monday/Tuesday, next week.
V.
Nothing should be deleted, but I avoid Daneric's site because of the language used. I like KS's site because it is all about sharing knowledge and analysing the markets. Please let's keep it that way. We all have different views; that's fine. We don't need to agree. So, freedom of speech is fine, but you can only be free within limits. Respect is the limit in this case. I think.
ReplyDeleteAll is fine but more of the comments should state the reasons for being net long, or net short, rather than silly statements. All that matters is market price direction, and this direction must be referenced to the specific time frame. Many times traders will disagree only to find out that the one was thinking bearish in the short term, while the other was thinking bullish in the intermediate term, and it turns out they both agree overall.
ReplyDeleteThis site is for education and entertainment so those goals seem to be working. As long as no one uses profanity, any comment is welcome, but state your case, either fundamentally or technically, for your position. Personal attacks add nothing to any conversation and actually reflect a sign of weakness and stupidity.