Mortgage Applications are up, barely, this week finally one up week in a sea of down weeks. Refi's are flat. Ramadan ends so the Middle East and Northern Africa violence and terrorism may increase. President Obama just cancelled his trip to Russia to meet with Putin in retaliation for the Snowden affair. Putin will likely not lose any sleep over the matter and probably seize the opportunity to poke another stick in America's eye. The president will attend the G-20 meetings. Oil Inventories are 10:30 AM. The 10-Year Note Auction is 1 PM.
The Nikkei drops -4% overnight as the yen strengthens and dollar/yen drops under 97, now printing 97.05. Copper, commodities and volatility remain the key drivers of market direction. Watch JJC 39.00, GTX 4795 and VIX 14.20. Copper starts the day bearish (and copper is very weak in early trading today), commodities are bullish, and volatility is bullish, respectively. Keybot the Quant is long but if JJC stays under 39.00, which appears likely, and the SPX drops under 1693, and stays there, the algo will likely flip short today. Watch the bear flag pattern on the 30-minute chart last evening which targets the low 1680's. The SPX 20-day MA is 1688.14 and the 50-day MA is 1650.02. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. Futures appear to weaken after the president cancelled the Russia trip a few minutes ago. Watch JJC 39.00, GTX 4795, VIX 14.20 and SPX 1693-ish. If GTX fails 4795 today, that will add further bear fuel to create a sustainable downside market move. DIS and RL are trading lower pre-market.
Note Added 10:31 AM: Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side today at SPX 1691. Watch JJC 39.00, now causing bearishness, and GTX 4795, now causing bullishness. Bears need GTX under 4795 to know that the downside is here to stay. Bulls need to push JJC above 39.00 and they can create a whipsaw back to the long side for Keybot. Markets remain shaky, staggering in more of a sideways direction despite the selling today. TRIN is 0.86 indicating that the bulls are gathering strength to make a run higher today. JJC and GTX will tell the story. SPX is at 1685.87. LOD is 1684.91. This 10:30 AM timing is when the POMO pumps kick in so we shall see what the bulls got. UTIL dropped through 500 printing a 499 handle but is now at 501.63. VIX is at 13.86, near the highs, inching up towards the bull-bear line at 14.20. If VIX moves above 14.20, the bears are guaranteed the downside. Bulls are trying to keep volatility under 14.20 with all their might; Chairman Bernanke is holding the VIX beach ball underwater but his fingers and hands are getting wrinkly and tired.
Note Added 10:41 AM: Whoa, GTX LOD is 4790. The 4795 failed but only for three minutes, the bears could not hold it. Here is your chance bears, you need to push GTX down the steps immediately and the market slide south will be sustainable. Now or never. A GTX bounce and move higher may indicate that the bulls will recover today. JJC is 38.91 moving up.
Note Added 11:16 AM: JJC at 38.98 sitting on the 38.98-39.00 bull-bear line in the sand. GTX keeps tapping on 4795 and dipping under but bears cannot keep it under. GTX 4799. The bulls and bears are fighting it out. TRIN 1.00 dead neutral so now it will not even pick a winner today. Call it the coin-flip market; it can still go either way. SPX 1688.
Note Added 1:11 PM: The drama continues. JJC is 39.00 sitting exactly on the 39.00 bull-bear line. GTX is 4798.90 above the 4795 bull-bear line in the sand. Semiconductors are now important to market direction. SOX is 474.22 above the 473.36 bull-bear line in the sand. A failure at SOX 473.36 will cause another leg lower for equities. VIX is smashed down to 13.15 and TRIN to 0.89 to create market lift. Same-o operation that the bulls perform each day to pump the broad indexes higher. JJC 39.00, GTX 4795 and SOX 473.36 are the three key inflection points right now and dictate maket direction. SPX is 1691.
Note Added 1:31 PM: JJC 39.16 on a big push higher now in the bull camp. GTX 4798.40. SOX 474.75. VIX 13.14. TRIN 0.93, bullish but up off the lower readings today. SPX 1691.40. SPX is flat as a pancake through 1690-1692 since lunchtime. Bulls are fighting back since they know they can lose complete control today if JJC, GTX and/or SOX turn down.
Note Added 1:41 PM: GTX failure now at 4787. 'Houston, we have a problem'. Copper and semi's remain on the bull side. SPX 1691.
Note Added 2:32 PM: Lots of blustering for position is going on. Bulls and bears, both with chests puffed out, each telling the other that they are 'da man', but neither has the energy to assume full control forward. JJC 39.09 creating market bullishness. GTX 4787 creating bearishness. SOX 473.89 creating bullishness but slowly leaking lower. VIX 13.24 continuing to create bullishness. Bulls will lose the markets when VIX moves above 14.20. TRIN 0.98. SPX 1690. Looks like semi's may create some late-day drama so watch SOX. If SOX 473.36 fails, only about fifty cents away, the SPX will drop into the mid to low 1680's. If bulls can push GTX back above 4795, today's negativity will disappear in a warm summer wind.
Note Added 3:21 PM: Status quo with JJC bullish, GTX bearish, SOX bullish. Markets float slightly higher since the bulls go to the first page of the playbook once again crushing volatility. VIX drops under 13. SPX 1693.
Note Added 4:00 PM: SPX 1691. Status quo into the bell. Copper, commodities and semiconductors will dictate market direction tomorrow.
KS,
ReplyDeleteCopper is rising, wti oil is already green and on 60 min we have on spx positive div.
What are the chances for a dump and ramp in front on our eyes?
Thanx,
V.
Maybe. Watch JJC 39.00 and GTX 4795.
DeleteAnd the world waits in breathless anticipation for Keybots call...
ReplyDeleteBK
Keybot is short now but the move is tenuous. Copper and commodities hold the key. If volatility keeps moving higher and VIX moves over 14.20, the market bears are golden. JJC 39 will ruin the bear's fun.
DeleteHey GS,
ReplyDeleteI know you are still out there monitoring. I understand your information influences the markets and your decision that you have taken. But what about contemplating some middle ground? You said yourself earlier that the copious amounts of information that you have been supplying were starting to affect the markets. Instead of going cold turkey, would you not have the option to monitor things and only post a one time signal once you get a confirmation of a Major Wave change (Up or Down). Thus, there are no continual posts that affect the markets, they will trade freely but you can still keep your 10% charity program alive and still help the "little guy" in an unfair trading world. Just something to consider. You are a man of your word so I do not expect that you will post any response to this. I only ask that you consider it and if that may be a viable middle ground solution.
Thanks,
C.
Thank you. Well stated and much appreciated.
DeleteDo what you want to do
ReplyDeleteGo where you're going to
Think for yourself
Cause u don't be there or you
Correction:
ReplyDeleteCause I won't be there for you
Of course Billy, I agree. But GS Guy's insight is an additional tool in the arsenal that we have at our disposal on this site. Combined with the many other charts, indicators and insight that KS supplies here. Everyone ultimately makes their own calls. But the more credible information you have, the better prepared you are for your own decisions... :)
DeleteC.
Now a bounce will come.
DeleteIt will rise up to 1696 - 1709. It will not get over 1710.
Load shorts in the area 1696-1709 with a stop loss at 1711.
target : 1513-1523 area / duration of major 4: 4-6 weeks.
If 1710 is broken (very few chances) and the market just goes to the upside, just stay in cash until it tops again and pick shorts there. If 1710 is broken don't follow the move and above 1710 don't load shorts until it doesn't tops again!
After 1513-1523 area reached load longs.
-
Please respect my decision.
With so much professional traders on this site (KS stated yesterday about traders from NY LOndon and so on) not the retailer but the fund manager and the banks are helped. And they have great financial power if combined in one trading direction. This thing will produce bigger distortions in the market.
I will search for better ways for my project.
GS guy
GS guy,
Deletethat means we are already in major 4, somewhere in minute a of 'A' ? (or at the end of minute 'a')?
Thanx,
V.
almost at the end of minute 'a' (the end might be here, above 1685, or lower at 1672-1675 maximum)
Deleteafter that follows minute 'b' of wave 'A' of major 4.
thanks all for appreciating the idea but it's clear that due to density TA information of KS's site it is a target for a certain number of fund managers and professional traders. I know what I'm saying.
GS guy
Gs, thanx, by guiding and helping small traders, who are gobbled by big ones, you are helping your project, this is my thought, thanx again
ReplyDeleteGS! Thanks for posting!
ReplyDeleteFeS2
Thanks GS for posting the update here. Looks like you are assuming that most of viewers of this site are Fund managers and bank trading managers. I don't think that is true. Most of the individual investors like us who are very new or medium experience in trading are looking guidance from site. So please help people like us and help your project. Don't let a good idea die.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
P
i just started trading options in march, and lost 70% of my portfolio guessing tops and bottoms in march/april. since finding keystones site, ive been using it and making modest gains.i finally got my account back over $3000.00 (go ahead, laugh) and while most of you probably spend that on dinner, its all i have. so this means the world to me. i cant express enough thanks for teaching me more about the market in the last 6 months than i have learned in the 3 years ive been dabbling in it.
Deleteaaaaand the circus begins :)
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/07/how-to-play-this-falls-debt-ceiling-fight-in-washington/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
V.
Godspeed GS, you've been awesome. Will continue helping those in need.
ReplyDeleteFeS2
I think 1720ish is on tap before 1740ish by end of august
ReplyDeletethe wave structure suggests that uptrend is intact as long as the pullback doesnt exceed 2% (right now depending on the index we went down between 1.3 and 1.6%)
don't think so.... there a cluster of multiple R fibo -derived levels in the 1711-1720 area.
Deletewatch out: if 1685 is lost it will get ugly.
And it will be lost. Just look on the MACD 60 min cycle...
V.
I got my hard hat on! lol
DeleteI have not a few SCARY bullish charts emerging that are starting to suggest the POSSIBILITY (just a possibility at this point) that the 2016 projected cycle bottom will actually be the top of a very extreme fractalized analog of the run from 1994 to 2000...
nothing confirmed but the structures have possibly been misidentified by the bears and the dark pool derivatives are working overtime to create "private" off the books debt "money"
Philly Fed President Plosser's speech for 16:30 GMT was cancelled!
ReplyDelete:))))))))))
probably if that speech would have been held , the market would have dropped 2-3 % ! :)
anyway Pianalto's speech is still on the table! (17:40 GMT).
V.
Shawn McGowan-
ReplyDeleteNo laughing here, good for you man. Always happy to hear a trader's success story. Glad you mitigated your losses.
FeS2
Lots of theatrics and drama today. More excitement than an Xman movie. Markets are at an inflection. SPX 1691. JJC 39. GTX 4795. SOX 473.36. JJC is now sneaking back above printing 39.06 into the bull camp placing all three parameters on the bull side. But watch these three since each one that moves bearish will create more and more market selling, but if all three remains bullish, like now, with JJC just turning bullish again, the SPX should recover.
ReplyDeleteThe relentless bull run this year (other than the hiccup in June) has made bears skittish, with good reason. Few believe downside is even possible, much less probable. That sets up the necessary complacency for a real waterfall. Bulls are skittish at taper talk, and smart money is exiting b/c they see tapering must occur OR it will lose its efficacy (diminishing returns). Better to taper before the market realizes it's not enough to levitate the market endlessly....
ReplyDeletelet the bounce commence...lol
ReplyDeleteretest of 1695.50ish on the 60 min will be critical
Hi V or other professionals,
ReplyDeleteI miss "minute a".
Could this be the bounce for "minute b" of A of Major 4?
Should we load shorts from this bounce?
Thanks!
Anon, I don't know.
DeleteAll I know is that 1685 and 1676 are key levels that clearely affirm Major 4 as in place and rolling.
If we will see a new all time high ( over 1709/1710) for me it's clear that we are not in major 4 but in an extended minor 5 of major 3 (still).
You should decide for your own what you want to do.
Your gains. your risk. your decision.
V.
Gotcha!
DeleteThanks for your response!
Take care.
My cycle system tells me we are about to start W5. It will run untill wednesday next week. Guessing : + 3%.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see.
we will get a 3-8 (yes 8%) bounce here - most probably to only 1740 but maybe higher - should end between the 15th and the 29th...
DeleteAndre and Scott,
DeleteThan a good idea would be to load fully leveraged longs, isn't it so ?
:)
Be my guests!
I've been rydex 2x dow and spx since the 9th
DeleteI walk the talk
the weakness the last few days is due to an expiring Volume Osc "T" - sometimes these T's are bearish and sometimes they are just cash profit taking events due to uncertainty.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p32732241358&a=311044671
The Money Flow T's and the cycles are indicating another move up before the decline. That's all.
I expect the decline to bottom out in October
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST30Y&p=D&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p71508904883&a=310948672&listNum=4
there may be one more drop into the eoy but a decent bottom should form - we will know then if it is the 90's or 2007 again.
Also none of my breadth charts have broke yet and you ARE NOT going to get the big decline until that happens.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SUPHLP&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p66210622943&a=309249836&listNum=4
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=13&id=p64877968592&listNum=4&a=298220672
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=4&mn=10&dy=0&id=p21154235910&a=304336341&listNum=4
DeleteFor the GDX chart you can see the positive divergence across the indicators for the price drop from the April low to the July low. It is consistent with price action that is basing with sideways to sideways up ahead.
DeleteFor the GDX weekly chart, same deal from April to now, note the positive divergence. It is speculative buying but anywhere here or lower should work out fine as the weeks and months play out ahead.
DeleteI dont disagree but I think the volatility should be over by Oct as my weekly Money Flow highlights...
DeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteMy forecast is at the lower end of your ranges in price and time. Coïncidence? I can't imagine you use the same instruments I do, so this matching should have some merits. And we would comply with GS Guy.
Should be interesting.
Oh there are more coincidences in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in my philosophies! lol
Deleteit will indeed be interesting this next week
:)
I want to thank GS for his market insights and let him know
ReplyDeleteI have learned a lot from his postings. I also want to thank KS for his wonderful charts and explanations of so
many market events. You are a great teacher KS. I also
want you to know that I will give to my local food bank
with any extra money I can make. The food banks are an effective way to spend money on people in need. Right now for every dollar I donate it will be matched by $10 and this gives the food bank enormous buying power. I always think in terms of basics. If you are hungry it is hard to function. Feeding our community is the first step to helping them. Thanks again.
A very strong move is coming , on daily charts BB are contracting seriously.
ReplyDeleteV.
V., do u think the move will be up or down?
DeleteContracting BB's don't indicate a certain direction (up or down) just indicate it will be a big one.
DeleteConsidering that we are in a topping phase, not in a bottoming phase probably it will be a big down move.
But you have to pay attention to the fact that the big money institutions don't like to have retailers "tails" , don't like to be followed by simple people executing their moves.
My opinion is first a big up (cutting through the upper daily BB and after than a big down following to the downside the lower BB already opened by the first big up through BB. Something like what we have seen on May 22 on daily candle. Big up, than big down leaving behind a thin black tail on the daily candle.
So watch out how you're managing your stop loss points so you won't be thrown out of your positions, ok?
V.
p.s. all I have said it's just an opinion, I might be wrong, do your own homework, ok? Thanx! :)
Or might be vice versa :)
DeleteFirst big down , than big up (limited to the upside of course by the daily or 5H upper BB)
V.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/before-you-flush-remember-the-london-fatberg-2013-08-08-710750?link=MW_home_latest_news
Deletebefore flushing :) ..it's "London 'Phat'-berg"
got it?
:)?
Good eye on the bands V. There is a huge move coming. The bulls always win perhaps it is the bears turn? Futures are up Thursday morning so the mystery deepens.
ReplyDelete