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Tuesday, August 13, 2013
Keystone's Midday Market Action 8/13/13
The Fed saves the day today. Fed's Lockhart pumps the markets at noon time saying the September taper is not cast in stone, so the markets jump higher. Traders know that more easy money booze and crack cocaine is on the way so it is party time again. The 8 MA moves up through the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bullishness ahead. The SPX is above the 20-day MA at 1693. SOX 479. XLF 20.47. VIX 12.44. TRIN 0.89. The bulls are driving the bus again with a happy Fed pumping semi's and financials higher and beating volatility and the TRIN lower. Bears need to push financials and semi's lower to restart the negativity. During OpEx week, a Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high. The LOD today is 1682.62.
I hope everybody is ok.
ReplyDeleteYou should be, if you have red my first comment in the morning.
Hope your shorts are already fully hedged with longs.
New highs will be seen in a matter of days, not weeks.
GS guy
Still not convinced of the new highs until 1699-1700 is breached to the upside, then the new highs and tight band squeeze to the upside is likely. The action remains very unstable but the higher semi's and financials are two big feathers in the bulls caps giving the upside the nod.
DeleteThe market better stay cool and preserve the gains for now.
DeleteIt's enough for today.
More upside and a test of 1699-1700 today would develop a negative divergence on 60 min RSI and MACD.
So a sideways to sideways-up is healthy now.
Our friends asians and europeans will prepare the rocket for Thursday/Friday.
Now more upside would be toxic.
GS guy
The bulls really thwacked volatility while pumping semi's. Financials are likely the key to the kingdom; XLF 20.12 is the danger level and they are well above at 20.44. It seems like a test of 1699-1700 would be prudent today or tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p77834704809&a=168142426&listNum=61
ReplyDeleteabove 1700 spx could shoot to 1762 before the end of Sept and then collapse in Oct as cycles are indicating...
But there are also bubble factors that could flip the cycles and the bear bottom projected for 2016 could turn out to be a high
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=120&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p98606058581&a=310132103&listNum=4
in spite of the buy signals going off, the NYAD cum is not recovering...fly in the ointment
The RSI and stochastics 50% levels will provide hints forward.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p88712489710&a=307800791&listNum=6
ReplyDeleteanother fly wiggling about in the goo
GS
ReplyDeleteThanks for the warning. I got the OPEX pivot perfectly today, didn't lose a single cent! Looking for bargain shorts this week!
FeS2
5th hindenburg omen in 7 days. Largest cluster on record. The larger the cluster, the larger the correction. At least, that's what I read.
ReplyDeleteHi Andre!
DeleteHO has a very bad predictive accuracy!
After France and Germany GDP figures this european morning I really don't know how a downtrend could develop and have follow-through!
I think a test of 1700 and after that a test of 1709 is in cards!
V.
Hi V.
DeleteSo you think the economie drives the market? It's all about pomo. Fdax now +0,1%! Is that because of the good news?
All my cycles give divergencies now. So I wouldn't be surprised if we are now in the last leg of a w5 (on the AEX). Volatility and volume extremely low.
Futures wall street -/- after the little rally last night.
I think world indices are now in the proces of synchronising. Once they all have seen kritiscal resistance levels the correction wil start. Or not ;-)
According to lunar (Moon) cycles a higher high is due until next Tuesday (Aug 20).
DeleteI will not tell here the level on spx 500 but it's certainly higher than 1709!
V.
Reedy point (tidals) signals a top today (highest low tide). IThe nex low should be around aug 21 if this technique is reliable.
DeleteA lunar cycle manifest itself in a period not in a day or point.
DeleteA maximum time/point cycle is due in the 15-20 August period, according to Moon's cycles - maximum intensity is reached during Sunday to Monday (18 to 19 Aug) so a maximum point today is a low chances version, in my humble opinion.
V.
New Moon is on Aug 20.
DeleteStocks tend to be bullish +/- 3-4 days around the new moon period.
what I have said is also connected with the new moon on Aug 20.
V.
As I understand it high intensity is bad for the market. Stong gravitational force from sun and moon give low lowtides. Today the low tides are highest, meaning weak gravitational force and thus a high in the market.
Deleteok,
DeleteWe will see the moves for today ...anyway I read a lot of blogs and EVERYBODY is so bearish in an OPEX week that I think until Friday all those bears will throw the towel being forced by the market ...just an opinion! :)
V.
The Hindenburg has a fairly good track record, it should be respected. Keystone will have to update an article on it. The Omen has created some false signals but every significant pull back in the stock market over the years have all been called by the Hindenburg Omen.
DeleteThe new moon was 8/6/13 where markets are expected to be weak, and they were. The full moon is 8/20 so markets would typically be expected to be bullish through the full moon, say Friday or Monday, 8/16 or 8/19, thru 8/21. See the Other Market Signals page on this site.
Keystone, does Keybot look at Utilities for its current calculations? The $UTIL has been very weak and did not rally with SOX and JJC.
ReplyDeleteGood eye to be thinking about such matters Alex. Utilities are currently in a no mans land. The bulls need to print at UTIL 520, 530 and higher to reverse the weekly downtrend that remains in place and signal bullish equity markets ahead. The bears need to push down through the UTIL 50-week MA which is 483-ish to signal bear markets ahead. UTIL dances around in the middle so it is not much of an issue right now, but in the coming days or weeks it will resurface in importance. Watch the 10-year yield which moved up to 2.72%. Higher yields send interest rate sensitive plays lower, such as utes, real estate, housing, telecom, so if yields creep higher, that may send UTIL down to test the 50-week MA. Market bears need to roll equity markets over in the near term say within one to three weeks or they may lose their chance. Pay attention to SOX 473.15 and XLF 20.12 as the most important market metrics dictating direction now. Copper is firmly in the bull camp. There may be actions taken against JPM traders today, that may sour banks. CSCO earnings are after the bell and will definitely affect the tech sector, Nasdaq, as well as all the chip (semi's) stocks.
Delete