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Wednesday, June 5, 2013
UTIL Utilities 1-Minute Chart
Two key levels exist when using the utilities as a market forecasting tool. First, the 50-week MA, now at 480.83, and second the weekly close 15 weeks ago, which was 477.91. The failure at 480.83 at the opening bell immediately signaled market troubles ahead. The rupture of 477.91 quickly followed and opened a trap door for the broad indexes. The dance along 477.91 continues all day long so the broad market, the SPX, did not break down through 1600, yet. If UTIL stays under 477.91 tomorrow, sub SPX 1600 is a given.
The importance of the 477.91 is obvious and not a coincidence. The ole-timers follow the utilities closely and many algo's use the two parameters described above. Price crossed the 477.91 eight times in the last one-half hour of trading. The markets know that if a firm break and failure occurs at 477.91, markets will tumble far lower. Place UTIL 477.91 at the top of the list for tomorrow since it will dictate market direction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
It may not require both. If UTIL moves above 477.91, and the SPX moves above 1629, that will likely cause Keybot to flip long, however, there are lots of other things that have to occur, but this is a good guideline. So even if utes spike higher tomorrow, the SPX will have to run about 20 handles higher to 1629, a formidable task, but not impossible, especially with higher volatility. But if the SPX stays under 1629, the bears have no worries at all, they will continue driving the bus.
KS, WLT bounced this morning to 17.37 and you did not take profit. Are you waiting for a bigger pop due to coal sector positively diverge? I notice WLT is quite volatile. Your comments will be greatly appreciated.
Yep, it is a psycho stock and dangerous, there must have been a rumor that bounced it. The short term charts say more up so it was held, the pull back was a surprise. It's a knife catch like all trades that employ positive divergence. Top and bottom calling is the essence speculative trading.
KS, thank you for posting WTIC chart and Kol chart yesterday. EIA reported the oil-supply decline of 6.3 million barrels, do you think they are trying to keep the oil price up around 95 or 96? Last Summer, it went down to 81-85.
Oil is coming out our ears and OPEC did not lower production because they know North America will fill the supply void so the Saudi's will only lose market share and not be able to bump price higher. The oil cartel days are over. Oil likely going far lower, if the disinflationary, and deflationary, a global slowdown scenario, with China property bubble popping, plays out.
KS, did the CB of Japan stop printing $$$, their market have been down a few consecutive days now? They got 18% correction in 2 weeks. Do you think US market will have that kind of a correction?
Anon, you should be up to speed with that if you are reading the site. The BOJ easing program, where they joined the race to debase their currency, like the Fed, weakens the yen. In currencies you have to look at pairs since all currency values are relative only to another currency. The $USD number is reflective of a basket of stocks mainly the euro. But when the BOJ eases, they weaken the yen, and this drives the dollar/yen pair higher, and Nikkei index and U.S. equities rise since this is all the easy money flooding the markets, it goes somewhere and that is to simply buy stocks, hence the obscene global rallies. Easy money floated into Europe, in depression and recession, sending their equities and bond markets higher (loer yields). So when traders think that BOJ did about what they could and the yen will not weaken much more, the yen strengthens, the dollar/yen drops, and Nikkei and U.S. equities drop. Sure U.S. markets can drop like that, next few days are important since we see if a bounce occurs, or a May 2012 scenario unfolds with more downside, or, if an August 2011 waterfall crash scenario occurs.
green opening? Noooooo... I've told you: it's stock mayhem right now! Sell everything, every piece of stock to us! FED will cut QE in JUNE ! All of it! Sell , sell! Damn retailers! what will we sell to you in 2 weeks if you don't sell now?
Don't be an idiot, instead, add something constructive to the conversation, otherwise, your posts will be flagged as spam and will be deleted as they occur.
KS, if Utes recovered above the 480.83 mark, would Keybot be likely to flip or is Keybot now far from flipping due to todays events?
ReplyDeleteThanks, BK
It may not require both. If UTIL moves above 477.91, and the SPX moves above 1629, that will likely cause Keybot to flip long, however, there are lots of other things that have to occur, but this is a good guideline. So even if utes spike higher tomorrow, the SPX will have to run about 20 handles higher to 1629, a formidable task, but not impossible, especially with higher volatility. But if the SPX stays under 1629, the bears have no worries at all, they will continue driving the bus.
DeleteKS, WLT bounced this morning to 17.37 and you did not take profit. Are you waiting for a bigger pop due to coal sector positively diverge? I notice WLT is quite volatile. Your comments will be greatly appreciated.
ReplyDeleteYep, it is a psycho stock and dangerous, there must have been a rumor that bounced it. The short term charts say more up so it was held, the pull back was a surprise. It's a knife catch like all trades that employ positive divergence. Top and bottom calling is the essence speculative trading.
DeleteKS, thank you for posting WTIC chart and Kol chart yesterday. EIA reported the oil-supply decline of 6.3 million barrels, do you think they are trying to keep the oil price up around 95 or 96?
ReplyDeleteLast Summer, it went down to 81-85.
Oil is coming out our ears and OPEC did not lower production because they know North America will fill the supply void so the Saudi's will only lose market share and not be able to bump price higher. The oil cartel days are over. Oil likely going far lower, if the disinflationary, and deflationary, a global slowdown scenario, with China property bubble popping, plays out.
DeleteKS, did the CB of Japan stop printing $$$, their market have been down a few consecutive days now?
ReplyDeleteThey got 18% correction in 2 weeks.
Do you think US market will have that kind of a correction?
Anon, you should be up to speed with that if you are reading the site. The BOJ easing program, where they joined the race to debase their currency, like the Fed, weakens the yen. In currencies you have to look at pairs since all currency values are relative only to another currency. The $USD number is reflective of a basket of stocks mainly the euro. But when the BOJ eases, they weaken the yen, and this drives the dollar/yen pair higher, and Nikkei index and U.S. equities rise since this is all the easy money flooding the markets, it goes somewhere and that is to simply buy stocks, hence the obscene global rallies. Easy money floated into Europe, in depression and recession, sending their equities and bond markets higher (loer yields). So when traders think that BOJ did about what they could and the yen will not weaken much more, the yen strengthens, the dollar/yen drops, and Nikkei and U.S. equities drop. Sure U.S. markets can drop like that, next few days are important since we see if a bounce occurs, or a May 2012 scenario unfolds with more downside, or, if an August 2011 waterfall crash scenario occurs.
Deletegreen opening?
ReplyDeleteNoooooo... I've told you: it's stock mayhem right now! Sell everything, every piece of stock to us!
FED will cut QE in JUNE ! All of it!
Sell , sell!
Damn retailers!
what will we sell to you in 2 weeks if you don't sell now?
Sell ! Panic sell!
Lol :)
GS guy
Don't be an idiot, instead, add something constructive to the conversation, otherwise, your posts will be flagged as spam and will be deleted as they occur.
Delete