SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided below for trading the week of 6/3/13. The 'sell in May and go away' adage starts to kick into gear just as the month ends. The May through October period is a lackluster period for the stock market with flat or minimal gains occurring on average. Note how price dropped and stopped within pennies of Keystone's 60-Minute with 200 EMA Indicator at 1630.15. Bad things happen to markets under 1630. Bulls will be happy if 1630 holds.
The SPX lost the important 20-day MA at 1644.81 opening the door to a test of the 50-day MA support at 1599.64. The 20 may serve as a ceiling and 50 as a floor, for a range of 1600-1645 as the bulls and bears fight it out in the coming days. This is the first week in several that price did not print any new all-time intraday or closing highs. Key S/R is 1649-1650, 1644.81 (20-day MA), 1634, 1630-1631, 1630.15 (200 EMA important bull-bear danger line in the sand), 1626-1627, 1618, 1614, 1599.64 (50-day MA), 1597-1600 support and 1593.
For Monday, starting at 1631, the bears only need to see a smidge of negativity in the futures and the downward acceleration will continue with a test of 1626-1627 in quick order. The bulls need to keep the futures positive overnight Sunday into Monday morning and also trying to retrace Friday's losses after the opening bell. A move through 1631-1658 is sideways action to begin the new week of trading. Watch the support levels closely since these are the logical areas where price will recover. The BOJ and Fed are the stock market. Thus, watch the dollar/yen on Sunday evening. If the dollar/yen moves higher to 100.40 and higher (weaker yen), markets will yell Banzai! and head higher bouncing off the 1630-1631 support. If the dollar/yen moves lower, under 100.40 and lower, the futures should remain red and the week will begin on a negative vibe. China PMI was a touch better than expected today but the HSBC number, as well as other Asia PMI's, and Europe PMI's, all hit before the U.S. open and will impact the futures.
The SPX lost the important 20-day MA at 1644.81 opening the door to a test of the 50-day MA support at 1599.64. The 20 may serve as a ceiling and 50 as a floor, for a range of 1600-1645 as the bulls and bears fight it out in the coming days. This is the first week in several that price did not print any new all-time intraday or closing highs. Key S/R is 1649-1650, 1644.81 (20-day MA), 1634, 1630-1631, 1630.15 (200 EMA important bull-bear danger line in the sand), 1626-1627, 1618, 1614, 1599.64 (50-day MA), 1597-1600 support and 1593.
For Monday, starting at 1631, the bears only need to see a smidge of negativity in the futures and the downward acceleration will continue with a test of 1626-1627 in quick order. The bulls need to keep the futures positive overnight Sunday into Monday morning and also trying to retrace Friday's losses after the opening bell. A move through 1631-1658 is sideways action to begin the new week of trading. Watch the support levels closely since these are the logical areas where price will recover. The BOJ and Fed are the stock market. Thus, watch the dollar/yen on Sunday evening. If the dollar/yen moves higher to 100.40 and higher (weaker yen), markets will yell Banzai! and head higher bouncing off the 1630-1631 support. If the dollar/yen moves lower, under 100.40 and lower, the futures should remain red and the week will begin on a negative vibe. China PMI was a touch better than expected today but the HSBC number, as well as other Asia PMI's, and Europe PMI's, all hit before the U.S. open and will impact the futures.
· 1687 (5/22/13 All-Time Intraday High: 1687.18) (5/22/13 Intraday HOD for 2013: 1687.18)
· 1675
· 1674 (Previous Week’s High: 1674.21)
· 1673
· 1669 (5/21/13 All-Time Closing High: 1669.16) (5/21/13 Closing High for 2013: 1669.16)
· 1666
· 1661
· 1659
· 1658.99 Friday HOD
· 1655.19 (10-day MA)
· 1655
· 1652
· 1650
· 1649
· 1647
· 1644.81 (20-day MA)
· 1636
· 1634
· 1633
· 1631 (Previous Week’s Low: 1630.74) (June begins at 1630.74)
· 1630.74 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
· 1630.74 Friday LOD
· 1630.15 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
· 1627
· 1626
· 1623
· 1620
· 1618
· 1617
· 1614
· 1600
· 1599.64 (50-day MA)
· 1599
· 1598
· 1597
· 1593 (4/12/13 Market Top: 1593.30)
· 1589
· 1586
· 1583
· 1579
· 1576 (10/11/07 Intraday High: 1576.09)
· 1569
· 1565 (10/9/07 Market Top: 1565.15)
· 1564.36 (20-week MA)
· 1564
· 1563
· 1561
· 1556.21 (100-day MA)
· 1556
· 1553 (10/31/07 Top: 1552.76) (3/24/00 Top: 1552.87)
· 1552
· 1551
· 1548
· 1546
· 1544
· 1539
· 1536
· 1531
· 1528 (3/24/00 Closing Top: 1527.46)
· 1525
· 1524 (12/11/07 Top: 1523.57)
· 1521
· 1520
· 1518
· 1516
· 1514
· 1512
· 1509
· 1508.40 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
· 1505
· 1503
· 1500
· 1498 (12/26/07 Top: 1498.85)
· 1495
· 1491.21 (10-month MA)
· 1489.81 (200-day MA)
· 1489
· 1485
· 1481
· 1476
· 1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)
· 1472
· 1471.97 (50-week MA)
· 1471.13 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
· 1468
· 1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)
· 1465
· 1461
· 1460
· 1457
Zero Hedge provides sweet cookies !
ReplyDeleteThere goes Aunt Abi and Uncle Frank investments ... along with the market's FED punch bowl....
http://federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20130517.pdf
take a little time to read it :) ...might provide interesting reasons for not buying too soon :).
I revised my plans for Monday ... no more longs, too soon. :) ...seems like this weakness might take a few more weeks, not days.
excerpt from the link that are the FAC of Board of Governors minutes:
"Uncertainty exists about how markets will reestablish normal valuations when the Fed withdraws from the market. It will likely be difficult to unwind policy accommodation, and the end of monetary easing may be painful for consumers and businesses. Given the Fed’s balance sheet increase of approximately $2.5 trillion since 2008, the Fed may now be perceived as integral to the housing finance system.''
hmmm .... market's normal valuations when FED withdraws from the market ?... hmmmm ... I'm curious if on Monday the asians will sent the SPX 500 futures in the 1600's or below after this kind of information ...
V.
p.s. I just love when this kind of information is sent publicly during the last minutes/hours of the market!!! ;)
well, how ES will open on Monday ? in the 1610's? 1600's? 1580's? or 1540's? Hmmm...
Now Aunt Abi and Uncle Frank, during Sunday night, will take a nap in front of their brokerage company to be the first ones to take back their money when stocks go live in the Monday's US live session. Go Aunt Abi and Uncle Frank! :)
Yep, Aunt Abby and Uncle Frank stocked up on franks and beans since they figured they will be eating this meal for months to come. Markets should take a recovery bounce at anytime, somewhere at 1600-1631, perhaps back up to 1650 or even 1675, then the roll over for a more extended down. The alternate is simply a collapse like May 2012 or August 2011.
DeleteUTIL 481 and 478 are the key. Bulls are fine above UTIL 481 with no worries. Big worries occur under UTIL 481 and under 478 the SPX will be dropping towards sub 1600 into the 15's.
KS,
DeleteConsidering that on 22 June we have a Bradley turn , my intuition is that until 17-19 June weakness will grow in the market and after the FED meeting more upside is to come.
What do you think about that?
V.
Things can only be taken day to day hour to hour in these markets. But that is reasonable perhaps weakness into the week of the 17th when markets regain their footing. If the bulls come to play this week and drive markets higher again then the Fed may end up as the skunk at the garden party. The eclipse indicator targets 6/10 give or take a couple weeks as an important potential market topping area so we are in that window now. The ECB decision is key since it will affect the dollar and yen and the markets.
Delete''Markets should take a recovery bounce at anytime, somewhere at 1600-1631, perhaps back up to 1650 or even 1675, then the roll over for a more extended down''
ReplyDeleteIf a bounce to 1650-1675 appears next week, will keybot the quant stay on "short" or it will go "long" for a whipsaw?
What level of bounce can Keybot support without going long?
Thank you,
V.
Keystone's posts are great. His forecasts & recaps are arguably the best on Stocktwits ... keep up the helpful work!
ReplyDeleteV., so u are with caldaro that weakness will last through june?
ReplyDeleteThere will be some weakness at the begining of June.
Deletethere is a time-window until 19 June when this "QE-tapper" subject will be exploited.
V.
FYI: Jeremy Siegel is back on CNBC predicting "DOW 17,000".
ReplyDeleteHe was bullish 2007-2008 with similar calls. He predicted "President Hillary Clinton" for the Nov08 election.
This is thus a "crash alert". LOL.
If the recent market tops hold, looking back, the market top will be named the 'Tepper Top' and 'Siegel Peak'.
DeleteKS, why is the NYMO so oversold with the market barely correcting at all?
ReplyDeleteWe all got spoiled over the QE pumping so in recent months,from last May's sell off to now, a NYMO of -40 to -50 was enough to create a market bottom, but if you look at a weekly chart using a line chart not the candlesticks, you can see how the larger selloffs were identified at a NYMO of -80 to -120. So it does indicate that a bounce would be in order, even a dead-cat just to relieve some downside pressure, but, if the selloff accelerates, a May 2012 or August 2011 situation may develop. UTIL 481 and 478 will tell you that answer since if the bears cannot drive utes downward thru these numbers, then they got nothing and markets will recover as the -80 NYMO hints.
Deletedata released on Saturday :
ReplyDeleteChina NBS Manufacturing PMI (May):
previous: 50.6
expected:50.1
actual: 50.8
well, that should assure a bump-up to 1650 - 1675 on Moday-Tuesday.
V.
Yep, that was a positive surprise but lots more PMI's coming V, Asia as well as Europe which will be a large focus. So for now, the bulls have a slight edge. Dollar/yen will tell the market direction this evening (Sunday).
Delete