A very active session continues today. Overnight, the dollar/yen moves from 94.10 up to near 95 creating buoyant S&P futures that ripple into a strong up day for the SPX and broad indexes. The dollar/yen direction controls market direction. In addition, UTIL overtook 488.48 and the GTX stays above 4764 adding bull fuel. Markets are very unstable and a complete reversal move can occur at anytime. Keybot the Quant is on the long side and is tracking utilities (UTIL) and commodities (GTX) sectors closely. The bulls negated the potential 8/34 MA cross on the SPX 30-minute chart highlighted this weekend (scroll backwards to study the chart). The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bullish markets ahead. The SPX is also above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute above 1629 signaling bullish markets ahead so these two turn signals are aligning for the bull case. TRIN 0.85. VIX 16.86. Keystone took profits on the SPXL trade exiting the position.
Note Added 11:55 AM: UTIL tests 488.48 and stays above now at 488.86. GTX 4784. Everyday is full of drama and theatrics. The Dow Industrials are now experiencing the fifth straight day of triple digit moves.
Note Added 12:13 PM: UTIL 488.44. The drama continues. Can the bulls hold the line?
Note Added 1:20 PM: The bears keep UTIL under 488.48 until fifteen minutes ago. UTIL is 489.03. GTX 4776; now it is dropping. The markets and asset classes are all over the map these days. Perhaps the long term affects of destroying price discovery, due to central banker actions, are coming home to roost. TRIN dropping now down to 0.76 so the broad indexes should receive buoyancy. The SPX 2-hour chart keeps showing some near term momo wanting some slightly higher highs that may need one to three candles to play out. This is 2 to 6 hours trading time which would be either today or tomorrow morning where the hourly and minute charts can confirm negative divergence and a potential roll over of price again. The 20-day MA is 1641.00 and the bulls are at 1644.31 receiving a feather for their caps. Watch the closing price in relation to the 20-day MA today. SPX S/R is 1636, 1639, 1640, 1641, 1647 and the important 1649-1650 resistance. Price is playing around the 1641-1647 zone. Dollar/yen at 95 creating the happy bull day today. Trannies are flat. Railroads are down in sympathy to weak coal. Volume is very light today at a run rate of only about two-thirds of a day's average volume.
watch your wallets, the big boys are out and hunting.
ReplyDeletethe calls volume bought reached yesterday a 1 year low record ( I've told everybody to check $ cpce) ... so.. a day like today was expected.
but stopping right into the resistence at 1647-1648 , with negative divergence in 15 min chart ... that is not a sign to be over-bullish.
this market is prone to violent swings , both sides.
maybe the same day.
V.
Yep, very erratic action. UTIL 488.48 and GTX 4764 should serve as rudders to indicate the market direction. UTIL is 488.69 pennies above the bull-bear danger line but on the bull side and GTX is 4780 creating bullishness. Both are printing near their danger levels so the action can only be taken minute to minute, hour to hour.
DeleteI've read your previous reply KS.
DeleteI'm happy after I've closed my longs, for a few more points (up to 1648-1652) I would have risked my capital with a dirty and fast 'C' wave, that's not ok.
I'm not risking thousands of $ working with leveraged products overnight (so not stocks) for some 50-75 $ more gain. That's not my style.
V.
exiting from longs was a really smart decision :)
DeleteV.
As noted here last week, I went long via SPXL Thursday EOD, sold those calls for +50% this a.m.
ReplyDeleteOn a crazy gamble WLT is overdone I nibbled on some $11 strike price calls.... usually this triggers another collapse in price so maybe other players here can benefit from my foolish willingness to catch the falling knife....
Yep Charles, WLT remains a mystery, it is trying to stabilize, volume is at three times a days average volume, this is the area where trading was halted on Friday. It is shocking to not see a company statement over the weekend to explain the situation. It is a very odd trade. Either lower, or a buyout is announced and it jumps higher, it is a coin flip.
DeleteAs the Jackson Browne song put it, those of us in WLT are either "just around the corner from Heaven or a mile from Hell." Methinks the next few days will reveal if we're on the abyss of Heck or not...
ReplyDeleteAnon the Quant has been bearish since my last post a few weeks back. Unlikely to whipsaw today since volume plays hard and heavy into the calculation. This is an EOD system unlike KB.
ReplyDeleteThe good news is that if it does flip the gain is locked and loaded.
Anon o bot was designed to move to neutral as a stand aside position.
I cant watch the markets from minute to minute but will post the day of the flip.
Happy Trading!!
I dont believe in Divergence
I dont believe in Elliott
I dont believe in Fibonacci
I just believe in me
Anon the quant? Anon o bot? what are you trying to tell us here?
DeleteEOD, is this stand for end of day?
If you truely want to share with everyone here, please clarify or do you have a site where we can check it out?
Thanks!
Anon, your turn signals are welcome, the more the merrier. So post them as they become available. Your creativity is lacking on the name for your model, however, perhaps Anon the Algo, or Anonalgo, or even Analgo, as in 'an algo' will provide a more witty name selection than Anon the Quant, but, as the inventor, you make the choices.
Deleteif this little beast doesn't get until the closing hours above 1647/1651 I guess I can say the words:
ReplyDeleteLadies and gents, Welcome to "C" wave :D! targets: 1523-1560.
Still collecting evidences and facts, but it appears as being the 'C' wave.
V.
Arnie and V., what your latest wave count? SPX still in triangle?
ReplyDeleteit's a int 4 that has multiple subdivisions of 'B' wave for now.
Deletemight be the start of 'C' also.
don't have a count right now, I'm just in cash and watching.
FED and OPEX are big events and I don't feel I have enough experience to go in the market now.
A few days of watching might help.
V.
Interesting times. The wedge in SPX is still in play, suggesting a break up or down soon. The Fed is now backed into a corner--either it promises the moon on Wed. or the market might get the DTs. Just saying the Fed won't taper may not be enough. the slightest whiff of tapering and the DJI plummets 100 points.
ReplyDeleteThis is the karma the Fed has earned. The monkey on the market's back is screaming for more smack, and if the dose doesn't increase, Mr. Market goes straight into withdrawal.
That said, if the Fed does promise the moon, we might get a monster relief rally into next week.
Just love it!
ReplyDeleteDid you know that for 1 million bux$ Thomson-Reuters gets the Consumer Sentiment of U michigan with 2 minutes prior to the market (and then it may sell that info to it's customers)?
I didn't!
After the issue of last month (of FED clients receiving FED minutes 1 or 2 days prior to their public release) this one is a new "goodie"!
Maybe that's why the stocks trading volumes are lowering month after month, year after year. Don't have to have an IQ above average to understand that this is a game of 'big money' guys.
SEC in US is a joke, a second-hand joke. From time to time they (showing -off!) catch some little idiot trader that makes some inside trading.
But what about The Big Network of Inside Trading ? that includes the FED, the big banks and the really big fund guys?
But those are rhetorical questions.
Sleep well, kids, and have happy ethical dreams!
All those new traders should know that trading is equivalent to swimming in a pool full of sharks ....
V.
After the Great Depression, there were folks that refused to own a share of stock for the remainder of their lives since the damage to the public's perception was so great. The Fed and BOJ are holding back any market correction with their main mission to create a higher stock market, as falls in the future months, that type of sentiment may develop for the years ahead. Many folks already feel that way from 2008-2009 and will likely stay in Treasuries and CD's and bank accounts for many years forward already.
DeleteWhat have I told you?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-kpmgs-exec-i-got-70k-for-insider-tips-2013-06-18?link=MW_home_latest_news
and this one with only 70K is the 'dummy' type...
V.